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Thao Nguyen
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Broadline Retail: Mercari (4385 JT) – Empowering Ecosystem

PSA Broadline Retail: Mercari (4385 JT) – Empowering Ecosystem with New Services Mercari is Japan's largest marketplace app, and is expanding with new services in fintech, payments, and on-demand jobs, etc., trading on attractive valuations.

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly 2024 Q4

When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...

4676 FUJI MEDIA HOLDINGS INC.
6754 ANRITSU CORPORATION
7751 CANON INC.
4519 CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
4751 CYBERAGENT INC.
4755 RAKUTEN INC.
3107 DAIWABO HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
8473 SBI HOLDINGS INC.
6954 FANUC CORPORATION
4324 DENTSU GROUP INC.
6861 KEYENCE CORPORATION
4902 KONICA MINOLTA INC.
6988 NITTO DENKO CORP.
7752 RICOH COMPANY LTD.
6869 SYSMEX CORPORATION
3064 MONOTARO CO. LTD.
5801 FURUKAWA ELECTRIC CO. LTD.
5715 FURUKAWA CO. LTD.
7205 HINO MOTORS LTD.
6501 HITACHI LTD.
6305 HITACHI CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY CO. LTD.
7267 HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD.
7012 KAWASAKI HEAVY INDUSTRIES LTD.
9107 KAWASAKI KISEN KAISHA LTD.
6971 KYOCERA CORPORATION
8316 SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
6503 MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC CORP.
5632 MITSUBISHI STEEL MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
5706 MITSUI MINING AND SMELTING COMPANY LIMITED
6966 MITSUI HIGH-TEC INC.
6902 DENSO CORPORATION
6701 NEC CORP.
6594 NIDEC CORPORATION
7201 NISSAN MOTOR CO. LTD.
4666 PARK24 CO. LTD.
6268 NABTESCO CORPORATION
2371 KAKAKU.COM INC.
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
8136 SANRIO COMPANY LTD.
6758 SONY CORPORATION
5802 SUMITOMO ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES LTD.
6762 TDK CORPORATION
6976 TAIYO YUDEN CO. LTD.
6315 TOWA CORPORATION
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
4208 UBE INDUSTRIES LTD.
8698 MONEX GROUP INC.
3774 INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN
3765 GUNGHO ONLINE ENTERTAINMENT INC.
2160 GNI GROUP LTD.
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
3445 RS TECHNOLOGIES CO. LTD.
6269 MODEC INC
3769 GMO PAYMENT
68900 FERROTEC CORPORATION
9519 RENOVA
4385 MERCARI INC.
3993 PKSHA TECHNOLOGY INC.
3626 JT TIS INC
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
7071 AMVIS HOLDINGS
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
45870 PEPTIDREAM INC
4443 JT SANSAN (4443 JT)
3491 JT GA TECHNOLOGIES
3394 JT MONEY FOWARD
4480 MEDLEY
RRRP3 3R PETROLEUM OLEO E GAS
6532 JT BAYCURRENT CONSULTING (6532 JT)
3697 JT SHIFT INCORPORATED (3697 JT)
4483 JMDC
4180 JP APPIER GROUP
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
4194 VISIONAL INC
9552 M&A RESEARCH INSTITUTE
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
9616 JT KYORITSU MAINTENANCE (9616 JT)
9552 JT M&A RESEARCH INSTITUTE (9552 JT)
6544 JT JAPAN ELEVATOR SERVICES HOLDINGS (6544 JT)
6200 JT INSOURCE (6200 JT)
2154 JT OPEN UP GROUP (2154 JT)
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Japanese Telcos At a MAJOR inflection as Fintech integration drives A...

Something significant has shifted in Japan. The telcos, and especially KDDI and SB Corp are now using their strength in financial services to drive customers towards unlimited offers. The result is likely to be an acceleration of ARPU recovery, and suggests we are at an important inflection point. We lift ARPU forecasts and price targets. SoftBank Corp is our new top pick, PT ¥2,500, from ¥2,200.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Japanese e-Commerce GMV slowing, revenue accelerating; CY 3Q23 review

Q3 saw some opposing trends. GMV growth for our universe slowed again and take rates were mixed. However, pure e-Commerce revenue slightly accelerated vs. Q2, and margins improved again YoY.

Thao Nguyen
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Internet / eCommerce: Mercari (4385 JT) – Short-term Challenges Do...

Mercari's share price has lost nearly 70% since its peak in Nov 2021 and has fallen 16% YTD as it faced headwinds from the reopening of the economy, and as concerns over the US business overwhelmed investors. In this report, analyst Thao Nguyen reviews the current status of each business and reiterates her belief in the company's long-term potential.

Chris Hoare ... (+2)
  • Chris Hoare
  • David Lopes
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Mercari (Buy, TP: ¥6,000, +103%) Q2 23: Mixed results

Mercari has reported a mixed set of Q2 results. Performance was good on the core Marketplace segment, but slower on the Fintech segment, and still challenged for the US business. FY23 GMV guidance will be revised downwards for the US business.

Chris Hoare ... (+2)
  • Chris Hoare
  • David Lopes

New Street: Japanese e-Commerce A decent quarter; CY 3Q22 review

Q3 was a decent quarter for the Japanese e-Commerce space with GMV and e-Commerce revenue growth accelerating. For the full note please click on the link below.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare
Chris Hoare ... (+2)
  • Chris Hoare
  • David Lopes

New Street: Japan e-Commerce A sequentially stable quarter; CY 2Q22 r...

Q2 was a stable quarter when compared to Q1 overall. Market GMV grew by c.10% YoY, like in Q1 and market share were broadly stable too. We continue to think that the fundamentals are strong but the short-term is likely to remain challenging.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

New Street: Japanese Telcos Decent quarter at group level, stay Buye...

Japanese incumbents have posted a decent set of Q1 results at a group level on an aggregate basis, with market revenues trends inflecting, and stable 12m rolling average OpFCF margins.

Thao Nguyen
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Internet / eCommerce: A Review of Mercari (4385 JT)

Despite an earnings beat and enhanced transparency in disclosure, Mercari’s shares have been sold off, pushing its YTD decline to 65%. In this report, analyst Thao Nguyen reviews each of the company’s businesses and evaluate whether the share price reaction has been excessive.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

New Street: Mercari (Buy, TP: ¥6,000, +160%) Q4FY22: KPIs light but g...

Mercari has reported a mixed set of Q4 results. C2C KPIs slowed across the board and came in below expectations but operating profit was back into positive territory this quarter and came in ahead of expectations.

Chris Hoare ... (+2)
  • Chris Hoare
  • David Lopes

New Street: Japanese e-Commerce Cut targets on growth slowdown; CY 1Q...

Q1 was a mixed quarter for the Japanese e-Commerce companies under our coverage with slower trends on the GMV and EBITDA sides but improving trends on the revenue side.

Thao Nguyen
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Internet / eCommerce: Mercari (4385 JT) Update

In this report, analyst Thao Nguyen compares Mercari with Rakuten and Z Holdings – all of which are in the process of building their own economic zones surrounding e-commerce and e-finance. However, there is a substantial gap in their market caps, with Mercari being a much younger company at a relatively early stage in establishing its ecosystem but offering significant growth potential. Moreover, with 47% of its market cap in cash, the stock having slumped 64% YTD and attractive valuations (FY2...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

New Street: Mercari (Buy, TP: ¥9,000, +307%) Q3FY22 Quick Take: Poor ...

Mercari has reported a poor set of Q3 results. The company has cut its GMV growth and profit margins targets for this year and also given revenue, operating profit and net profit guidance for FY22 which implies that trends will continue to deteriorate in Q4.

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Strategy: Japan Market Strategy for FY22 Q2

The Japanese stock market is in an interesting phase where the Bank of Japan is supporting the bond market rather than the stock market. While this phase lasts, the dollar should remain above ¥120/$ and perhaps strengthen further against the yen. This report looks at what this phase might mean for the Japanese stock market as a whole, and for stock selection. The PSA Focus List has also been updated.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

New Street: Japan e-Commerce Slower Q and macro-economic uncertaintie...

Q4 was a slower quarter overall for the Japanese e-Commerce companies under our coverage as the boost from the pandemic is fading away.

Increased risk weighs on MERCARI, penalising its rating down to Sligh...

The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of MERCARI (JP), active in the Broadline Retailers industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 2 out of 4 possible stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly deteriorated and will be qualified as risky moving forward. theScreener considers that these new qualifications justify an overall rating downgrade to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date February 8, 2022, the closing pr...

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