reports
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos At a MAJOR inflection as Fintech integration drives A...
Something significant has shifted in Japan. The telcos, and especially KDDI and SB Corp are now using their strength in financial services to drive customers towards unlimited offers. The result is likely to be an acceleration of ARPU recovery, and suggests we are at an important inflection point. We lift ARPU forecasts and price targets. SoftBank Corp is our new top pick, PT ¥2,500, from ¥2,200.
- Chris Hoare
- Thao Nguyen
- Thao Nguyen
PSA Internet / eCommerce: Mercari (4385 JT) – Short-term Challenges Do...
Mercari's share price has lost nearly 70% since its peak in Nov 2021 and has fallen 16% YTD as it faced headwinds from the reopening of the economy, and as concerns over the US business overwhelmed investors. In this report, analyst Thao Nguyen reviews the current status of each business and reiterates her belief in the company's long-term potential.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: Japan e-Commerce A sequentially stable quarter; CY 2Q22 r...
Q2 was a stable quarter when compared to Q1 overall. Market GMV grew by c.10% YoY, like in Q1 and market share were broadly stable too. We continue to think that the fundamentals are strong but the short-term is likely to remain challenging.
- Chris Hoare
- Thao Nguyen
PSA Internet / eCommerce: A Review of Mercari (4385 JT)
Despite an earnings beat and enhanced transparency in disclosure, Mercari’s shares have been sold off, pushing its YTD decline to 65%. In this report, analyst Thao Nguyen reviews each of the company’s businesses and evaluate whether the share price reaction has been excessive.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Thao Nguyen
PSA Internet / eCommerce: Mercari (4385 JT) Update
In this report, analyst Thao Nguyen compares Mercari with Rakuten and Z Holdings – all of which are in the process of building their own economic zones surrounding e-commerce and e-finance. However, there is a substantial gap in their market caps, with Mercari being a much younger company at a relatively early stage in establishing its ecosystem but offering significant growth potential. Moreover, with 47% of its market cap in cash, the stock having slumped 64% YTD and attractive valuations (FY2...
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Mercari (Buy, TP: ¥9,000, +307%) Q3FY22 Quick Take: Poor ...
Mercari has reported a poor set of Q3 results. The company has cut its GMV growth and profit margins targets for this year and also given revenue, operating profit and net profit guidance for FY22 which implies that trends will continue to deteriorate in Q4.
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Strategy: Japan Market Strategy for FY22 Q2
The Japanese stock market is in an interesting phase where the Bank of Japan is supporting the bond market rather than the stock market. While this phase lasts, the dollar should remain above ¥120/$ and perhaps strengthen further against the yen. This report looks at what this phase might mean for the Japanese stock market as a whole, and for stock selection. The PSA Focus List has also been updated.
6770 ALPS ALPINE CO. LTD.
3407 ASAHI KASEI CORPORATION
4751 CYBERAGENT INC.
9684 SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
4307 NOMURA RESEARCH INSTITUTE LTD.
4324 DENTSU GROUP INC.
6728 ULVAC INC.
6981 MURATA MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
6902 DENSO CORPORATION
7915 NISSHA CO.LTD.
7201 NISSAN MOTOR CO. LTD.
6268 NABTESCO CORPORATION
4063 SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL CO LTD
6758 SONY CORPORATION
6762 TDK CORPORATION
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
7261 MAZDA MOTOR CORP.
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
3436 SUMCO CORPORATION
3659 NEXON CO. LTD.
6098 RECRUIT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
7270 SUBARU CORP
4503 ASTELLAS PHARMA INC.
6506 YASKAWA ELECTRIC CORPORATION
4980 DEXERIALS
68900 FERROTEC CORPORATION
41850 JSR CORPORATION
4385 MERCARI INC.
78320 BANDAI NAMCO
TSE:4477 BASE CO.
3491 JT LTD.
4478 JT GA TECHNOLOGIES
3394 JT FREEE KK
6967 JT MONEY FOWARD
7383 SHINKO ELECTRIC (6967 JT)
4259 JT NET PROTECTIONS HLDGS INC
TSE: 2980 EXAWIZARDS INC
SRE HOLDINGS CORP
- Chris Hoare
Increased risk weighs on MERCARI, penalising its rating down to Sligh...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of MERCARI (JP), active in the Broadline Retailers industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 2 out of 4 possible stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly deteriorated and will be qualified as risky moving forward. theScreener considers that these new qualifications justify an overall rating downgrade to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date February 8, 2022, the closing pr...
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Mercari (Buy, TP: ¥9,000, +115%) Q2FY22: Mixed
Mercari has reported a mixed/disappointing set of figures – excluding an accounting change revenue slowed to 22% at group level (from 30% in Q1), driven by a slowdown of GMV growth in Japan to 15% (from 22% in Q1), offset by a reacceleration in GMV growth in the US to +17% (Q1: -6%).
- Chris Hoare
New Street: Japanese Telcos & Internet What to expect in 2022: Telcos ...
2021 contained good and bad news. Good (for incumbents) was that PM Suga resigned reducing regulatory pressure. However, price cuts are starting to have an impact. During 2022 we think headline prices will be more stable, 5G upside will start to appear, and Rakuten will continue to struggle. Overall we think profit forecasts will steadily rise and the incumbents will grind higher, much like in 2021.
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