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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica: Results slightly better, guidance for the combined entity to come in Sept. CM.com: 4Q25 results – no turning point yet. D'Ieteren: Allstate reports bumper 4Q25, touts premium cuts, consensus prudent. Heijmans: Construction cool cat. Proximus: CPaaS peer Twilio 4Q25 results better than expected. Talabat: 4Q25 results, doubling down on investments. Theon International: Preview – a busy year it was.

Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Lewi
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Company comments AB InBev: Little to disappoint Adyen: 2H25 results – mixed results, soft guidance CVC Capital Partners: Executing well dsm-firmenich: Messy results Fagron: Beat on all lines, confident FY26 outlook to drive c.5% consensus EBITDA upgrade Flow Traders: EMEA saves the day KBC: Good results, opening up “jaws” further to 2028 Kinepolis: Canadian peer Cineplex 4Q25 results below consensus, January 2026 box office revenue up MICC: FX headwind leads to a 50bp margin miss in FY25 Montea:...

Guy Sips ... (+10)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update February 2026: Removing ASMi; Adding UCB

After today's changes (ASMi out, UCB in), we maintain a balanced approach in our Dynamic Top Pick List, with a particular emphasis on value stocks that have been overlooked. Our defensive holdings are overweight, including real estate, which stands to benefit from lower interest rates. We remove ASMi from our Dynamic Top Pick List as the recent share price performance has driven the valuation meaningfully ahead of fundamentals. Since early December, FY27 diluted EPS expectations have risen by a...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Flow Traders: Preview 4Q25 / Kinepolis: January reassures with US box office revenue up 14% YoY, France visitors up 15% YoY / Lotus Bakeries: Peer Mondelez 4Q25 results / MICC: Peer Mondelez 4Q25 results / RELX / Wolters Kluwer: Anthropic moves into Legal / Signify: Analyst lunch highlights / TomTom: 4Q25 results, bridging a gap / UCB: Evenity sales exceeded US$2.1bn in FY25 as per Amgen

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: Preview: Another quarter in no man's land? / Ahold Delhaize: Confirms the acquisition of Delfood / AGEAS: China – state to inject capital into insurers / AkzoNobel: Tepid 4Q25 results and FY26 outlook / D'Ieteren: Belgian car registrations down 19%, 65% of 2019 level, VW down only 5% / Xior Student Housing: Sound organic trends continue, two-year guidance revealed

Guy Sips ... (+4)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
David Vagman ... (+2)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA

Kinepolis/Moment of truth in 2026, M&A case gets real/BUY

The stock underperforms 56% since end-2024, 15% YTD, as the long-awaited attendance recovery failed to materialise and a convincing mid-size M&A deal could not turn the tide yet. The stock has derated to 7x EV/EBITDAL 26F, close to our €20 bear case, investors becoming sceptical on the long-term story, while studios consolidation (Netflix/Warner Bros) fuels fears of dangerous structural changes at play. We acknowledge them but also see the upsides, among others, self-help and converting Netflix ...

David Vagman ... (+16)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA
  • Dirk Verbiesen
  • Francesca Ferragina
  • Jason Kalamboussis
  • Marc Hesselink
  • CFA
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA
  • Maxime Stranart
  • Michiel Vereycken
  • Quirijn Mulder
  • Reg Watson
  • CFA
  • Thymen Rundberg
  • Tijs Hollestelle

ING Benelux Favourites/Aedifica, Ageas, ASM International, Basic-Fit, ...

We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list. We apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks which provide the best upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Additions/deletions: We add the following names to the ING Benelux Favourites list: Ageas: Ageas has done multiple deals; its most recent purchase of the 25% stake BNP Paribas had in its Belgian ops, is an accretive deal and we believe makes the Belgian operations ready for a pot...

 PRESS RELEASE

Publication of a transparency notification

Publication of a transparency notification Kinepolis Group NVPress releaseRegulated information Publication of a transparency notification (Article 14, first paragraph, of the law of 2 May 2007 on disclosure of major holdings) 20 January 2026, 17h45 On 16 January 2026, Kinepolis Group NV has received a transparency notification from BNP Paribas Asset Management Holding, notifying that, following a transfer of securities with voting rights, the companies that are controlled by it own 2.98% of the voting rights attached to shares of Kinepolis Group NV, and therefore the threshold of 3% ha...

 PRESS RELEASE

Publication relative à une notification de transparence

Publication relative à une notification de transparence Kinepolis Group SACommuniqué de presseInformation réglementée Publication relative à une notification de transparence (article 14, alinéa 1er de la loi du 2 mai 2007 relative à la publicité des participations importantes) 20 janvier 2026, 17h45 Le 16 janvier 2026, Kinepolis Group SA a reçu une notification de transparence de la part de BNP Paribas Asset Management Holding, dont il résulte que, suite à un transfert de titres conférant le droit de vote par les sociétés qu’elle contrôle, celles-ci possèdent au total 2,98% des droits d...

 PRESS RELEASE

Openbaarmaking van een transparantiekennisgeving

Openbaarmaking van een transparantiekennisgeving Kinepolis GroupPersberichtGereglementeerde informatie Openbaarmaking van een transparantiekennisgeving (artikel 14, eerste lid, van de wet van 2 mei 2007 op de openbaarmaking van belangrijke deelnemingen) 20 januari 2026, 17u45 Op 16 januari 2026 heeft Kinepolis Group NV een kennisgeving ontvangen van BNP Paribas Asset Management Holding waaruit blijkt dat de door haar gecontroleerde ondernemingen, door een overdracht van stemrechtverlenende effecten, in totaal 2,98% van de stemrechten van Kinepolis Group NV bezitten en aldus de deelnemin...

Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Lewi
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AGEAS: strong upgrade to FY25 earnings guidance (€1.3 to €1.6bn) due to one-off from China; ASM: The beat comes early; D'Ieteren: Possible Belron IPO by end 2026, Belron debt repricing; IBA: IBA to install three P1 systems at University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

D'Ieteren: PHE does nice mid-size M&A in Spain / Fastned: Beat on gross profit, organic growth lags, high cash burn / JDE Peet's: Caffè Americano / Semi equipment: TSMC puts capex where its mouth is / Theon International: Increasing Harder Digital's capacity.

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+5)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Michiel Declercq
  • Michiel Declercq

D'Ieteren PHE enters into exclusive negotiations for two acquisitions ...

PHE has entered into exclusive negotiations to acquire a 51% stake in two AD Parts distributors in Spain, Polaris and Regueira. Polaris and Regueira are major players in light vehicle spare parts distribution in Madrid, Galicia, Castile-La Mancha, Castile and León, Cantabria, and Asturias. The two entities generated € 340m in sales in 2025. This compares to PHE's current 12 month trailing revenue of € 2.84bn. Although no financials have been disclosed, the transaction will allow PHE to leverage ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN AMRO: Pre-close 4Q: positive read, but with recent CMD, no surprises on guidance / Ahold Delhaize: New US distribution centre to be leased from Blackstone / Kinepolis: Peer Cineplex December 2025 box office revenue at 89% of 2019 level, up 3% YoY / Randstad: Preview 4Q25F results due 11 February; consensus released / Staffing sector: Hays' 2Q26 trading update; miss vs consensus / Zabka: Peer Biedronka FY25 sales.

Guy Sips ... (+2)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
Guy Sips
  • Guy Sips

Kinepolis Group One Battle After Another

Following weaker-than-expected December 2025 admissions in North America and Europe, we updated our Kinepolis visitor model to reflect a softer 4Q25 and FY25 than originally anticipated. In the US, December Box Office declined -2.3% y/y, resulting in a –6.9% quarter as an overcrowded release slate diluted demand across major titles. This drove FY25 admissions below expectations, despite a 1% y/y increase in Box Office revenue supported by premium pricing. We expect Canada to show the same patter...

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