Kinepolis Group One Battle After Another

Following weaker-than-expected December 2025 admissions in North America and Europe, we updated our Kinepolis visitor model to reflect a softer 4Q25 and FY25 than originally anticipated. In the US, December Box Office declined -2.3% y/y, resulting in a –6.9% quarter as an overcrowded release slate diluted demand across major titles. This drove FY25 admissions below expectations, despite a 1% y/y increase in Box Office revenue supported by premium pricing. We expect Canada to show the same pattern, prompting downward revisions to 4Q25/FY25 visitor assumptions.
Europe also is expected to underperform. France recorded a strong December driven by Avatar and Zootopia 2, but still ended FY25 with admissions down -13.6% y/y. Broader European markets declined -2.6% and remain roughly 25% below pre-COVID levels. We therefore revised our FY25 and outer-year visitor estimates for Belgium, France, Spain and The Netherlands. The December shortfall—one of the most important months of the year—ultimately triggered this model adjustment.
These revisions do not alter our constructive long-term view. Premium formats, operational efficiencies, and the expected Emagine acquisition continue to underpin Kinepolis' structural growth path. However, the December data underscores elevated near-term volatility driven by content timing and intensified competition for audience attention. Our updated model now embeds a more conservative visitor outlook for FY25 and early FY26, followed by normalization as the release slate improves and premium formats continue to outperform. We maintain our Buy rating but lower our Target Price to €42 (from €48).