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Filipe Botelho ... (+3)
  • Filipe Botelho
  • Josseline Jenssen
  • Lorena Reich

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Brava Energia, Millicom, Vale, Embraer, FS Agrisolutions

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

EM Tower Trends Q3 CY25 review: Solid quarter, especially in Africa

Tower revenue trends were slightly slower across the board except for Indus Towers as it benefited again from VIL’s network catch up spend. EBITDA margins were roughly stable across EM except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. Africa continue to perform well and the LatAm Towers space had a decent Q3.

Josseline Jenssen ... (+2)
  • Josseline Jenssen
  • Lorena Reich

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Geopark, Millicom, Nexa

Josseline Jenssen ... (+2)
  • Josseline Jenssen
  • Lorena Reich

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Brava Energia, Usiminas, Millicom, Ecopetrol

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers 2025 wrapped. NSR GEM 2026 Top-10 unveiled:...

2025 was when the EM Telco bull market really took off. Two of our top picks returned >100% and four more 50%+. We make one change to our top picks for 2026 from 2025, introducing Megacable in exchange for IHS Towers. In a separate note out today we run through the Themes that we think will drive performance in 2026.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Themes and Top picks for 2026

EM Telcos have been strong for some time, but 2025 was a banner year. Multiples have expanded somewhat, but we remain bullish, as we think EM Telcos operate on a long cycle driven by market structure which has now definitively turned up We therefore see EM Telcos in a true stealth bull market as conditions still seem ripe for the best to exhibit pricing power and hence GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC. This note explains the key themes we see for 2026.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Fish in a barrel? 8 Themes that drove EM Telcos in 2...

2025 was a banner year for EM Telcos, following on from a good 2023 and 2024. As we head towards the New Year we thought it might be useful to highlight a few of the thematic pieces we wrote last year that we think help to highlight why EM Telcos are in a clear and sustained bull market and why therefore we are confident that 2026 will be another good year for investors in the space, as fundamentals continue to look much stronger than in the past. I hope you enjoy reading these and happy holiday...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Japan DC exposure, future developments and valuati...

EM & Japanese Telcos have more DC capacity than those in other regions. In this short note, we look at the current and future Data Center (DC) capacity for the telcos in our coverage as well as the potential valuation for these assets, in an attempt to contextualise this exposure.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Blow out Q3 results drive another great mon...

EM Telco earnings season was extremely strong, and with 8 of our 10 picks reporting this month, our picks rose 6.8% on average in November and are now up 80% YTD. With Singtel having strongly outperformed, Bharti we swap the latter in for the former; this note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.

Filipe Botelho ... (+3)
  • Filipe Botelho
  • Josseline Jenssen
  • Lorena Reich

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vast, Ecopetrol, Falabella, Millicom, JBS, InRetail Consumer, InRetail RE, Avianca, TGS, Tupy, Ultrapar, Simpar

Lorena Reich
  • Lorena Reich

Millicom - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytics

Millicom has posted solid Q3/25 results, with sustained margin expansion despite a slight top-line decline. The EBITDA margin expanded 8.0 ppts y-o-y to 48.9%. FCF was positive USD 118 mn, despite an additional dividend distribution and higher capex. Net leverage (including leases) inched down 0.1x q-o-q to 2.6x. Excluding leases, net leverage also dropped 0.1x to 2.1x. Liquidity remained solid. We anticipate EBITDA growth and margin expansion in FY 2025, reflecting the cost-saving initiatives a...

Filipe Botelho ... (+3)
  • Filipe Botelho
  • Josseline Jenssen
  • Lorena Reich

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: YPF, TGS, Telecom Argentina, Samarco, Pampa Energia, BRF, Millicom, Marfrig (MBRF), Movida, FS Agrisolutions, Braskem

Filipe Botelho ... (+3)
  • Filipe Botelho
  • Josseline Jenssen
  • Lorena Reich

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Brava Energia, Geopark, Petrobras, Cencosud, Millicom, Rede D'Or, SierraCol, C&W Communications, Minerva, Suzano, Aeromexico, VTR Finance, Tupy, Braskem, Iochpe-Maxion, Aegea

Chris Hoare ... (+2)
  • Chris Hoare
  • David Lopes
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Back to Black: NSR GEM Top-10 November ‘25 ...

Our portfolio of Top Picks was higher again in October, and now up 69% ytd. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos When does Digital drive a re-rating? Upgrade VEON, V...

We analyze how much revenue EM Telcos are generating from digital businesses, and therefore at what point they are likely to make the transition from being “Telcos with digital assets” to “Digital first”. We use this to predict when the market is likely to re-rate those exposed, and as a result make multiple upgrades across our GEM Telcos.

Filipe Botelho ... (+3)
  • Filipe Botelho
  • Josseline Jenssen
  • Lorena Reich

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Millicom, VTR Finance, Energuate, Klabin, Aeromexico, Embraer

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Why are governments allowing mobile price hikes?

We note EM Governments & regulators appear to have become much more relaxed about mobile ARPU growing above inflation relative to the recent past. Why is this? This note gives one possible explanation.

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