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ABGSC Telecom Operators Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
  • Simon Granath

Improving outlook

Q1e: EBITDA growth to reach double-digits, but limited FCF so far. Colombia upgrades on improved competitive outlook. Uncertainty outweighing the attractive 15% FCF yield, keep HOLD.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

Millicom Q3s (Neutral, TP: $18, +20%) : The Iliad Way

Millicom reported Q3s today with ongoing sedate trends in revenue (~2% growth y/y) but with a strong EBITDA performance, beating by 5%, with Colombia notably printing historically high margins.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

Millicom (Neutral, TP: $18 ($19), +15%) Millicom - Deal in Colombia f...

Millicom Q2s trends reported yesterday were weak, though within the parameters pre-guided to at the end of June. Perhaps most striking is the leverage of 3.34x as of Q2 which, including existing and potential Colombian spectrum liabilities (1.9 GHz and AWS), rises to nearer 3.75x. The solve for this could come from a deal in Colombia, though we will need 6-12 months to see whether this is approved ...

David Lopes ... (+2)
  • David Lopes
  • Soomit Datta

LatAm Telecoms High Yield - Starting Coverage

Following a similar initiative in Europe, we are picking up closer coverage of the high yield names in LatAm. In part there is a capital structure overlap with existing equities under coverage (Liberty LA and Millicom) but we have also separately engaged on new names: WOM in Chile (wireless, FTTH) and Totalplay in Mexico (FTTH). Our detailed understanding of these additional names should reinforce understanding of the relevant regional equities also (AMX, Megacable, Televisa).

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

TIGO (Buy, TP: $21, +23%) TEF (Buy, TP: EUR4.7, +30%) Millicom - Apol...

A flurry of activity. Millicom last night announced that discussions with Apollo regarding an offer for all of Millicom shares are off. This comes 24 hours after the announcement of a MOU between Telefonica and Millicom to merge their mobile networks in Colombia (in reality a pretty "full" merger potentially) AND the latest news on a 5G auction date in December.

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - In play

Xavier Niel becomes largest shareholder with 7% stake Says supportive of Millicom’s strategy and management A likely first step only; Millicom now a take-over target

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - Fighting macro headwinds

Q3 growth rates reflect weaker macro trends as expected ’22e-’24e EBITDA -2%, ‘22e EPS -35% on finance losses Risks to outlook and guidance but valuation upside

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - Q3’22: weakening markets

Serv. revs -1%, EBITDA -5% vs ABG and consensus FY’22 guidance for EFCF USD 150-200m in line Cons estimates and shares down by 3-5%

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - Q3’22: weaker macro trends taking hold

Stable performance but EBITDA growth coming down Estimates reduced 1-2% on weaker Columbian peso Macro environment challenging; TP to SEK 200 (250)

Christer Linde
  • Christer Linde

Strategy Report - Share performance during rights issues

Increasing amounts of rights issues expected Last five years saw shares overperform post-rights issue Offensive reasons for issues generally perform well

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - EBITDA growth catching up

Solid growth in service revenues and EBITDA OCF and EFCF guidance and targets reiterated Fundamentals strong but macro challenges weigh

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - Q2’22: EBITDA growth accelerating

Q2 service revenue in line with EBITDA 1-2% above Guidance for OCF and EFCF reiterated Cons estimates +2-3%, shares to react positively

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

New Street: LatAm Telecoms Q1 Wrap: Sticking with Wireless over Fixed ...

We publish today our take on the LatAm Telcos Q1 earnings season. As well as our broader note which picks out key themes and market by market insights, we also publish for the first time a summary of our database which looks at key financials and operational KPIs on a country level basis - see LatAm Telcos Quarterly Databank.

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - Time to revisit

Rights offering period and trading in rights from 27 May EPS diluted by 42% with TP to SEK 250 (400) Appealing valuation multiples & recovery potential; BUY

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - All set for the rights offering

Q1 in line with only minor estimate changes Rights issue to pressure shares; TP to SEK 400 (450) We see strong recovery potential and uplift post offering

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

New Street: TIGO (Buy, TP: $48, +120%) Millicom - Rights Issue techni...

"What did they say on the call?!" was the question of the day as the stock, having opened up 3% initially - and following the date being announced for the rights offering (10 May) and Q1 earnings release, then reverse engined into the earnings call.

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - Q1’22 results fully in line

Q1 results fully in line with ABG and cons estimates Timing for USD 750m rights issue announced Minor changes to cons estimates; shares slightly up

Peter Kurt Nielsen
  • Peter Kurt Nielsen

Millicom - Q1’22: solid growth but higher costs

Q1 results 28 April: solid performance looks set to continue Higher costs weighing on EBITDA growth, as in Q4 We expect the share to recover post upcoming rights issue

MILLICOM INTERNATIO sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a bett...

The general evaluation of MILLICOM INTERNATIO (SE), a company active in the Mobile Telecommunications industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 29, 2022, the clos...

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

New Street: TIGO (Buy, TP: $48, +75%) Millicom Q4s: Buy back looks se...

Ahead of Monday's Investor Day, Millicom released FY numbers this morning which were generally solid; higher corporate costs a slight worry, but broader guidance OK and including a pick up in homes passed within the existing capex envelope.

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