Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Scale benefits visible

While we acknowledge that costs will rise as activity picks up, we believe the underlying trends in Q2 demonstrate the scale benefits of Axactor’s operating model. Reaching its full-year capex guidance of EUR200m is, however, looking increasingly challenging to us, with the lion’s share needed to be closed in Q4e. We have lifted our 2022–2023e EPS by 0–1%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price based on a still-attractive risk/reward, with the stock trading at a 35% discount to its 2021e B...

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Sustained discipline

While market activity is gradually picking up speed, we believe Axactor sustained its investment discipline during Q2. However, robust collection trends and seasonality should lead to solid revenues, which, combined with continued cost measures, take our Q2e EBIT to EUR22.3m. We have trimmed our 2022–2023e EPS by 0–3% but reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price. The stock is trading at a ~20% discount to book value, which in our view offers an attractive risk/reward should Axactor deliver on it...

Axactor - Earnings accretion, cost savings and easy comps

Underlying better earnings than expected in Q1 Savings lift est. reported EBITDA 3% for 2022e-23e Estimated fair value range of NOK 8.4-26.8/share

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Clean-up continues

Q1 marked another clean-up quarter for Axactor, with its underlying performance in line with our forecasts. While collections were on a par with our estimate, the Q1 results showed limited signs of a pick-up in activity, which we continue to expect in H2 2021. Our 2022–2023 EBIT estimates are largely unchanged, as marginally lower revenues are offset by lower costs following the restructuring programme, which management expects to provide annual cost savings of ~EUR5m from Q4. We reiterate our B...

Axactor - Underlying better, but one-offs blur

Q1’21: Cash EBITDA EUR 52m, 4m below ABG and cons Deviation driven by one-offs from cost reduction initiative EUR 4m EBITDA uplift from YE’21 from cost reductions

Axactor - Cost reduction programme results expected in Q1

Q1’21e: cash EBITDA of EUR 56m, +17% y-o-y Full-year capex for 2021 estimated at ~EUR 240m Cash EBITDA chg.: -4% ’21e, -2% ’22e and -1% ’23e

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Banking on a rebound

We find Axactor well positioned to benefit from rising IRRs and the increased supply of NPLs in the coming years, even though the 2021e investment catch-up looks back-end-loaded due to the prolonged nature of the pandemic. We forecast gross revenues of EUR84.8m in Q1, while a low amortisation rate leaves our EBIT at EUR18.1m. We have lowered our 2022e EBIT only marginally. We reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price, implying a rather attractive 2022e P/E of 7.7x in our view.

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Back-end loaded capex ramp-up

In our view, the Q4 report demonstrated that fundamentals are gradually moving in the right direction, leaving Axactor well positioned for an investment ramp-up during 2021. However, management comments suggest a back-end loaded capital deployment. We have made only limited changes to our 2021–2022e EPS, and reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price. We continue to apply a discount to company-provided collection curves, acknowledging the meaningful potential for earnings expansion should it meet ...

Axactor - Q4: lots of moving parts, but cash EBITDA better

Q4’20: reported EBITDA EUR 1.8m below ABG… …Cash EBITDA EUR 1.6m ahead in the quarter Revaluations blurred, cash EBITDA better than expected

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Things in place for ramp-up

With added investment capacity and extended debt maturities, we find Axactor well placed to take part in the coming NPL up-cycle. We expect a continued pick-up in gross revenue generation in Q4 (EUR88m), and EBIT of EUR21m. We have raised our 2021–2022e EBIT by ~0–2%, while reiterating our BUY and NOK13 target price, implying an attractive 7.5x 2022e P/E, in our view.

Axactor - Growing pipeline in third-party collection

Q4’20: reported EBIT flattish y-o-y A growing pipeline in third-party collection ~20% valuation uplift from “big-fix” transaction

Axactor - Increasing firepower and simplifying structure

Simplifying structure: positive for equity and bondholders Earnings and EPS accretive transaction Valuation uplift of 20% following the transaction

Northern Lights

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Cleaner and leaner

Last week, Axactor announced a multi-step transaction addressing most of the challenges that have been weighing on the stock recently. In brief, we believe this should ensure a cleaner, leaner, larger set-up, leaving Axactor with valuable investment capacity in an increasingly attractive European NPL market. We have raised our 2021–2022e EPS by 24–27% on a rather conservative capex phase-in, and increased our target price to NOK13 (10). We reiterate our BUY.

Axactor - Platform beats size in economies of scale

Axactor’s NPL platform scales better than that of peers Market outlook & NPL platform likely to attract PE, again Significant and tangible uplift potential for ROE

Northern Lights

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK10.00) - Clear sign of improvements

Most metrics improved during Q3 with a pickup in collections, a return to positive cash generation and continued cost-savings measures. Cash EBITDA beat our estimate by 3%, while EPS was meaningfully above our forecast due to an REO impairment reversal of EUR5.1m and a lower amortisation rate. We have kept our estimates largely unchanged and continue to find the valuation attractive at ~7x our 2021e EPS. We reiterate our BUY and NOK10 target price.

Axactor - Back on track, normalisation in all segments

Q3 cash EBITDA +3% vs. ABG, +14% vs. cons… …driven by lower opex, gross revenue in-line with ABG Stock should outperform on beat today

Northern Lights

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK10.00) - Sequential earnings pick-up

We forecast a sequential pick-up in collections and net profit QOQ, as we believe the gradually improving collection trends evident in Q2 have continued into Q3. With no material portfolio revaluations and continued cost-savings, we forecast an EBITDA of EUR20.1 and an EPS back into positive territory for Q3. We have raised our 2021–2022e EPS by 3–5% (from a low base), but reiterate our BUY and NOK10 target price.