Inevitable Downside Risks On Tariff Uncertainties, But Not All Is Bad PKA’s data showed that WPRTS’ volume momentum slowed sharply, and gateway volume contracted in Feb 25. A result of the inevitable downside risks of the tariff uncertainties, investors may consider taking profit. While the CK Hutchison deal may not work out, we think WPRTS has available avenues to earn geopolitical leverage while remaining politically neutral, via WPRTS 2 concession or Cruise Terminal. We cut our forecasts by 4...
GREATER CHINA Results Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb59.82/Target: Rmb71.30) 2024: Net profit misses but core profit in line due to lawsuit provision; focus on off-premise channel expansion in 2025. MALAYSIA Sector Consumer ESG assessment of the top 10 largest F&B companies; Nestle comes out tops. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Update Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD/RM4.75/Target: RM4.40) Advise taking profit...
GREATER CHINA Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$28.50/Target: HK$39.90): 2024: Results miss; a strong start and positive outlook for 2025. KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$67.20/Target: HK$80.00): 4Q24: Solid top-line beat; earnings miss; expecting stabilised outlook in 2025. WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/BUY/HK$72.35/Target: HK$90.00): 2024: Results satisfactory; targets continued operations for accelerated revenue growth of 10-15% yoy in 2025. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$57.65/Target: HK$63.90...
Potential Trading Upside Based On Hutchison Deal Metrics Hutchison’s planned US$22.8b exit of its global ports business to Blackrock-MSC (which includes its 24% stake in WPRTS) is valued at a 13.5x EV/EBITDA, a premium vs the 10x peer average. For the past year, WPRTS’ share price appreciation had partially factored in tariff hikes. While our forecasts remain unchanged, we see trading upside based on recent events (Hutchison) and a proposed material adjustment on storage charges. Retain HOLD; ad...
2024: Beat Expectations On VAS Revenues WPRTS surprised on the upside for both 4Q24 earnings and EBITDA (~RM0.4b). Although container volume growth was flattish (as per guidance), this was underpinned by resilient gateway growth and VAS revenues. In 1H24, the sporadic port congestions did help WPRTS to benefit moderately in terms of VAS; however, VAS may be at a high base in 2H24. In our revised forecast, we expect the "one-off” VAS to taper off by 2Q25. Retain HOLD. Target: RM4.20.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales up 14% yoy and 30% wow. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Renewable Energy: Solar energy equipment: Prolonged industry consolidation, moderation of global installation growth and rising protectionism challenge survivability. Results TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$11.07/Target: US$14.00): 3QFY25: Strong earnings beat; profit turnaround amid investment in learning devices. INDONESIA Results Bank Negara Indonesia...
2024 Preview: Volume Within Expectations Despite Below-peer Growth WPRTS is scheduled to release its 2024 results by the end of next week. We expect 2024 container volume to be flattish, in line with its guidance. Although it clearly indicates a loss of market share compared with SMA peers (PSA and PTP), note that WPRTS is placing increased focus on boosting its high-yield gateway business. We believe as 2025 is set to reignite the spirit of ASEAN, the SMA ports will benefit more via collaborati...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...
3Q24: Headline Numbers Intact Despite Better Costs After WPRTS 2 Accounting WPRTS beat our forecasts in 3Q24 mainly due to lower amortisation as the new WPRTS 2 concession commenced in Sep 24, extending the concession lifespan by at least 15 years. Headline numbers were still intact. In the medium term (until CT10 startup by 2028), one area of growth may give a further boost to WPRTS’ gateway cargoes, vs chasing for a transshipment recovery. We maintain HOLD on WPRTS with a target price of RM4.2...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Deflationary pressure persists, particularly for upstream pricing. Results ECARX (ECX US/BUY/US$1.84/Target: US$3.40): 3Q24: Revenue beat despite price competition. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp438/Target: Rp480): Unclear outlook for 2025; regulatory risk to key brand products. Downgrade to HOLD. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.32/Target: RM2.60): 3Q24: Delivers on earnings as it is on the cusp of ...
9M24 Preview: Container Volume Growth Within Expectations In our preview of Westports’ (WPRTS) 9M24 results, we observed that volume growth will continue to be driven by gateway, as the global port congestions had not eased and will continue to adversely impact its transshipment. Despite wide public knowledge on WPRTS 2 concession, we still think that WPRTS lacks medium-term catalysts. Recent volume data already shows fellow competitor NorthPort gaining results from its new yard capacity Block K...
GREATER CHINA Results Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK/BUY/HK$49.05/Target: HK$69.00) 3Q24: Bountiful harvest after prolonged dry spell. ZTE Corporation (763 HK/HOLD/HK$21.05/Target: HK$19.00) 3Q24: Results miss, expect stringent cost controls before next capex cycle. Downgrade to HOLD. Zijin Mining (2899 HK/BUY/HK$17.40/Target: HK$21.90) 3Q24: In line; mining entities’ gross margin down 1.2ppt qoq on lower copper ASP. Update Jiumaojiu In...
2Q24: Container Yields Surpass Expectations On Surprising VAS Surge WPRTS beat our forecasts mainly due to a VAS revenue surge. 2024 port congestions negatively impacted costs, but mainly for transhipment. Hence, gateway mix remained strong. The readjustments away from the Red Sea generated more ad-hoc calls, more laden boxes handled per call, larger average parcel sizes and higher VAS – all positive drivers on container yields. Assuming this is a high-base effect, risk-reward is balanced. Maint...
GREATER CHINA Results Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb189.35 /Target: Rmb250.00) 2Q24: Earnings in line while revenue misses. Maintain BUY. Update Weichai Power (2338 HK/BUY/HK$13.16/Target: HK$16.00) Upgrade from HOLD to BUY on strong stimulus policy. Raise target price from HK$12.50 to HK$16.00. INDONESIA Results Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ/HOLD/Rp2,490/Target: Rp2,700) 2Q24: Weakness and market share loss due to reoccurring boycot...
Downside Risk From Sporadic Port Congestions And M&A Trends Our findings that WPRTS’ loss of market share in 1Q24 to PTP and PSA alongside PSA’s recently reactivated defunct terminals appear to support our theory that WPRTS’ lack of spare capacity is a small competitive disadvantage, amid sporadic global port congestions which have worsened qoq. We preemptively cut WPRTS’ volume assumption. Also, investors may need to digest more M&A trends including a Smart AI port in Negeri Sembilan. Retain HO...
INDONESIA Strategy Rally in 2H24 Likely Our top picks. Banking – BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN; property – BSDE, CTRA; technology – BUKA; consumer – CMRY; retail – ACES; infrastructure – JSMR. MALAYSIA Update Duopharma Biotech (DBB MK/BUY/RM1.25/Target: RM1.39) Public sector should anchor 2025 earnings as private sector sales outlook appears muted. Maintain BUY with a target price of RM1.39. Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
1Q24: Laden Gateway Boosted Profits, But Sporadic Port Congestions A Risk WPRTS’ 1Q24 core profit was boosted by another new high in its gateway mix, especially the laden gateway cargo that command the highest tariffs. However, with flattish Apr 24 volume growth, certain cost spikes will persist due to sporadic port congestion/vessel bunching which could disrupt schedules more than the 2021-22 scenario. We had explicitly highlighted this risk in an earlier update note despite maintaining our for...
Embracing Port Congestion And Container Industry Consolidation Port congestion may re-emerge as a key earnings risk in 2024, as an aftereffect of the Red Sea and Panama Canal crises. With no spare capacity at least in the medium term, we believe WPRTS will continually reassess its position, amid changing M&A trends that are propelling leading shipping liners to co-invest with strategic ports to become global terminal operators (GTO). Noting that its share price is aligned with the global peer av...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales rebound for two weeks in a row, but price war intensifies. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$102.30/Target: HK$120.00) 1Q24: Solid results, more positive updates to advanced packaging business. EVE Energy (300014 HK/SELL/ Rmb34.27/Target: Rmb20.00) ...
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