GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
1Q24: Laden Gateway Boosted Profits, But Sporadic Port Congestions A Risk WPRTS’ 1Q24 core profit was boosted by another new high in its gateway mix, especially the laden gateway cargo that command the highest tariffs. However, with flattish Apr 24 volume growth, certain cost spikes will persist due to sporadic port congestion/vessel bunching which could disrupt schedules more than the 2021-22 scenario. We had explicitly highlighted this risk in an earlier update note despite maintaining our for...
Embracing Port Congestion And Container Industry Consolidation Port congestion may re-emerge as a key earnings risk in 2024, as an aftereffect of the Red Sea and Panama Canal crises. With no spare capacity at least in the medium term, we believe WPRTS will continually reassess its position, amid changing M&A trends that are propelling leading shipping liners to co-invest with strategic ports to become global terminal operators (GTO). Noting that its share price is aligned with the global peer av...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales rebound for two weeks in a row, but price war intensifies. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$102.30/Target: HK$120.00) 1Q24: Solid results, more positive updates to advanced packaging business. EVE Energy (300014 HK/SELL/ Rmb34.27/Target: Rmb20.00) ...
2023: Profits In Line Despite Gateway Volume Charging Up Westports beat expectations on both 2023 container volumes and the high-yield gateway business. However, Westports remains conservative on volume guidance for 2024, as it embarks on the new WPRTS 2 expansion. Without the allowance of tariff hikes, investors may perceive the expansion negatively − the lease payment changes alone will impact the earnings base by 5%. Fortunately, Westports has started renegotiations for the tariff changes. Re...
GREATER CHINA Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$12.20/Target: HK$21.60): 4Q23 results preview: Solid results on resilient smartphone margins. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance in Jan 24: Our picks are EXCL, MAPI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. Results Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp6,675/Target: Rp7,400): 4Q23: Net profit up 15.6% qoq and 52.1% yoy; CASA market share rising. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Eyes Also On Results Season Winners: Our Alpha Picks performance again...
Assessing Disruption Risks in 2024; Supply Chain Crisis Far From Over Although Westports closed 2023 with a new milestone on monthly volumes, the global ports and container industry started the new year of 2024 with new disruption risks. We have identified them as: a) potential supply chain delays of up to one month from the Panama Canal and Red Sea “chokepoints”, b) other geopolitical risks, and c) gateway volumes (exports) delays on new customs procedures, but we do not expect material near-te...
GREATER CHINA Sector Dairy: Slowing demand to weigh on valuations in the near term. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Switch top pick to Yili. Online Travel Agencies: Strong travel demand visibility into 2024. Server: Edge AI penetration and enterprise investment to accelerate adoption of GenAI. Initiate Coverage Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb18.90): Server ODM giant to remain a key winner of the gen ai investment trend. INDONESIA Update Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ/...
WPRTS 2 Concession Sanctioned, But More Factors Need To Be Ironed Out The long-awaited CT10-17 terminal expansion has been sanctioned. WPRTS 2 will boost capacity from 15m TEUs to 27m TEUs, and the concession period until 2082. Our target price has partially factored in the expansion, but in our view it is still not immune to political risks (exposed to projects like ECRL and Pulau Carey). Key terms (like tariff, capex and funding) are still being finalised, but without this guidance, it is not ...
GREATER CHINA Initiate Coverage iFlytek (002230 CH/BUY/Rmb45.38/Target: Rmb62.00): Trailblazer in voice recognition AI poised to capture AIGC opportunities. Update Li Ning (2331 HK/SELL/HK$21.35/Target: HK$18.80): Unreasonable property purchase reflects weak corporate governance. INDONESIA Update Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ/BUY/Rp9,375/Target: Rp14,100): Acquisition to regain market share with potential earnings accretion of 11.2%. MALAYSIA Update Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/BUY/RM3....
3Q23: Profits Beat Expectations On Gateway Volume Charging Up 9M23 core profit surprised positively against our forecasts, as container volume held up well and is above the group’s conservative guidance. The key driver was the highyield gateway business, which again reached a new all-time high. We now believe gateway has more room for growth, in tandem with foreign investments (to set up distribution hubs, including those in Westports Logistic Center). We upgrade forecasts by 4-6%, and take the ...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Oct 23 inflation lower on pockets of weakness in consumer demand. Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$44.10/Target: HK$57.00): 3Q23: Luck-adjusted EBITDA in line; expect higher opex to meet growing demand. Li Auto (2015 HK/BUY/HK$154.90/Target: HK$312.00): 3Q23: Net profit up 23% qoq to Rmb2.823b, 28% above consensus. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$312.00. INDONESIA Results Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp825/Target: Rp1,000): 3Q23: Strong ...
2Q23: Profits In Line, Helped By Strong Gateway Growth We deem 1H23 core profit in line. Although volume growth appeared to be ahead of 0-5% guidance, this was offset by normalisation of average container yields, which shrank on lower VAS income and a higher proportion of empty boxes during 2Q23. Still, Westport’s execution remains commendable. After its recent reinstatement as a KLCI constituent, we opine current levels offer a long-term accumulation opportunity as our SOTP still excludes the W...
GREATER CHINA Initiation Coverage China Server: AI investment series: Diving into opportunities in the server industry. Sector Automobile: Weekly: Passenger EV sales up 59% yoy/21% wow over 17-23 July, in line. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. INDONESIA Results Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ/BUY/Rp8,000.00/Target: Rp9,785.00): 2Q23: Lower qoq and yoy but still within our expectations. Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/HOLD/Rp650/Target: Rp680): 2Q23: Profit warning issued for the rest of ...
Integration And Cargo Stickiness The Growth Drivers Moving Forward Despite various risks with China’s reopening and local cargo growth, WPRTS’s container volume growth for 2023 is on track and aligned to PKA’s recent expectation of a 2% volume growth. For longer-term expansions, maturing regional hubs (like IKEA and Talke Logistics) and generating cargo stickiness will be more important vs organic volume growth (containership capacity will be on consolidation mode vs net growth). Maintain foreca...
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Weaker M1 growth points to need for policy stimulus. Update Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.00/Target: HK$130.00): Solid 1QFY24; Taobao+Tmall DAU/Time spend to be the key focus. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH/BUY/Rmb28.50/Target: Rmb37.50): 2Q23 results preview: conservative on full-year revenue guidance. Small/Mid Cap Highlights SenseTime Group Inc (20 HK/NOT RATED/HK$1.89): Revolutionising industries with rapid iteration. INDONESIA Updat...
1Q23: Profits In Line; Cost Upside Well Contained 1Q23 core profit was in line, owing to above-peers container volume growth. While there is still no update on the WPRTS 2 concession progress (expected to begin construction in 2H23), WPRTS remains optimistic on longer-term growth (mainly driven by China’s reopening and it refocusing on its role to boost global trade). Cost upside was well contained, but overall we do not any see near-term catalysts until the WPRTS 2 concession terms are revealed...
GREATER CHINA Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/HOLD/HK$11.16/Target: HK$11.10): 1Q23 results preview: Margin expansion to more than offset decline in shipments. INDONESIA Results Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ/BUY/Rp10,000/Target: Rp13,500): 1Q23: NPAT in line with expectations; improvement in margins. MALAYSIA Results Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD/RM3.48/Target: RM3.80): 1Q23: Core profit was in line, owing to above-peers container volume growth. Cost upside was well contained. SINGAPOR...
Beneficiary Of China’s Recovery; WPRTS 2 Concession Looms We see opportunities for investors to accumulate on trading upside, premised on a changing market perception about China’s reopening (and a reportedly sharp drop in the number of empty containers in China). That said, long-term upside will remain capped until the terms of the WPRTS 2 concession (slated to begin construction in 2H23) are known. Pulau Carey will not be a competition for the next 10 years. Retain forecasts, maintain HOLD and...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer: Periodical opportunities ahead; confident on professional sportswear products expansion. INDONESIA Update Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,005/Target: Rp1,200): Starting 2023 with a 74% yoy increase in marketing sales. MALAYSIA Update Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD/RM3.58/Target: RM3.80): We see trading opportunities amid rising market perception of China’s reopening on trade growth, but long-term upside remains capped until WPRTS 2 terms are known. SINGA...
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