Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Alpha Picks: Focusing On Laggards And Selective Catalysts Highlights Our Jan 26 Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI on a price-weighted (+5.2%) and market cap-weighted (+5.9%) basis. IOI Properties Group (IOIPG) (+20.8%) and Lagenda Properties (+20.0%) led the gains while Pekat (-14.6%) and VSI (-13.4%) lagged. For Feb 26, we favour stocks with firmer domestic earnings visibility amid lingering external uncertainties and names with company-specific catalysts amid sector rotation. Feb 26...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile Chinese EVs are gaining share in the global auto market, due to China’s integrated supply chain dominance and favourable trade policies. Established incumbents like BYD are facing increasing competition from fellow Chinese auto OEMs and some western brands like VW. Lower-export OEMs (Geely, XPeng) hold greater upside than high-export leaders (BYD, GWM). China’s EV export hub status benefits suppliers as foreign OEMs leverage local production. Maintain MAR...
4Q25: Momentum Intact Highlights Bursa reported 4Q25 net profit of RM61m (-5% yoy, -19% qoq). Earnings were marginally below expectations due to higher-than-expected effective tax rates. Expectations of an increasingly looser monetary policy in developed markets is expected to spur emerging market inflows, further supporting Bursa’s ADV momentum, in our view. We remain constructive on Bursa’s ADV growth outlook for 2026 and maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of RM9.80, bas...
Company Results | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt24.80/Target: Bt45.00) KTC posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt2.08b, up 10% yoy and 6% qoq. The results beat our and consensus estimates by 10%. KTC’s loan growth expanded 0.4% yoy and 4.4% qoq in 4Q25. In 2025, the loan portfolio grew 0.4% yoy. The asset quality remained robust, with credit costs down 128bp qoq. We believe KTC will maintain a prudent approach to ensuring good asset quality. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Company Results | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt24.80/Target: Bt45.00) KTC posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt2.08b, up 10% yoy and 6% qoq. The results beat our and consensus estimates by 10%. KTC’s loan growth expanded 0.4% yoy and 4.4% qoq in 4Q25. In 2025, the loan portfolio grew 0.4% yoy. The asset quality remained robust, with credit costs down 128bp qoq. We believe KTC will maintain a prudent approach to ensuring good asset quality. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00. Company Re...
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth accelerated to 6.6% yoy in December (+0.7ppt mom), well above consensus, supported by strong shipments growth to Hong Kong and ASEAN, while exports growth to the US weakened further. Import growth surged to 5.7% yoy (+3.8ppt mom), beating expectations amid broad-based commodity recovery. Trade surplus widened to US$114.1b. Growths of motor vehicle, hi-tech, and mechanical & electrical exports strengthened. Overall, December’s trade data is marke...
Greater China Company Update | Lenovo Group (992 HK/HOLD/HK$8.95/Target: HK$9.70) Lenovo is expected to report its 3QFY26 results on 12 Feb 26. We estimate adjusted net profit to grow 8.2% yoy to US$470m on the back of a 12.1% yoy growth in revenue. The solid revenue growth was primarily driven by pulled-forward demand as consumers rushed to replace their PCs before further price hikes amid a memory super cycle. We factor in a worse-than-expected memory shortage and trim our FY27-28 estimate...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt26.50/Target: Bt45.00) We expect KTC to report a 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.9b, flat yoy but down 3% qoq. We anticipate KTC increasing its loan portfolio by 2% yoy and 6% qoq in 4Q25 due to the seasonal high. KTC could report a 51bp qoq increase in credit cost to 595bp in 4Q25 as we reckon the company will increase provision expenses to add cushion against future uncertainties. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Undemanding Valuation And Not Impact Of Domestic Purchasing Power Our portfolio returns outperformed the market (+5.3% vs +0.2%). We have a neutral view on the SET Index, although the market may gain positive momentum from the election period. However, the market may be pressured by weak domestic purchasing power. We decided to add PTTEP and PTTGC to our portfolio as their share prices are still undemanding and their performances are not impacted...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Alpha Picks: Strong Close to 2025; Fired Up Into 2026 Highlights Our Dec 25 Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI, delivering a 5.7% return vs the benchmark index’s +4.7%. Bermaz Auto (+25.7%), RHB Bank (+10.9%) and VS Industry (+7.8%) spearheaded the excess portfolio returns, outpacing the broad market’s beta-driven rally. For Jan 26, while we expect near-term equity market reaction to the latest USVenezuela tensions to remain largely muted, we continue to favour domestically-driven names, w...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt28.00/Target: Bt45.00) KTC guided a loan growth target of 1-2% in 2026. The CEO guided that the economic outlook in 2026 remains gloomy, and the company will focus on bottom line growth and robust asset quality in 2026. Meanwhile, there has been no guidance on the impact of selling unsecured NPLs to AMCs. BOT announced that it would be maintaining the credit card minimum payment at 8% until 31 Dec 26. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Top Stories Company Update | Krungthai Card (KTC TB/BUY/Bt28.00/Target: Bt45.00) KTC guided a loan growth target of 1-2% in 2026. The CEO guided that the economic outlook in 2026 remains gloomy, and the company will focus on bottom line growth and robust asset quality in 2026. Meanwhile, there has been no guidance on the impact of selling unsecured NPLs to AMCs. BOT announced that it would be maintaining the credit card minimum payment at 8% until 31 Dec 26. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt45.00.
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth rebounded to 5.9% yoy in November, beating consensus estimates, driven by a recovery in EU and Japan shipments, although exports to the US weakened further. Imports rose 1.9% yoy, below consensus expectations, amid mixed commodity performances. The trade surplus widened to US$111.7b. Exports of motor vehicle, hi-tech and mechanical & electrical goods improved, while integrated circuit imports strengthened. Overall, trade data showed resilience via d...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
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