reports
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: Insights from preliminary proxy
Charter filed a preliminary proxy earlier today. We now have detailed historical and projected financials for Cox. The standalone forecasts and synergy forecasts are below ours, but in-line with consensus and prior guidance. We provide comparisons in this brief note.
- Ian Martin
- James Ratzer
Charter Communications Inc: 1 director
A director at Charter Communications Inc sold 178,887 shares at 392.470USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Felix Fischer
Europe HY Trade Book - May 2025 - Lucror Analytics
The Europe HY Trade Book for May 2025 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. We also discuss the US tariff situation and key related impacts.
SCHP SECHE ENVIRONNEMENT
PFD PREMIER FOODS PLC
AMS AMS AG
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA
VK VALLOUREC SA
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
EO FAURECIA SA
105I SAPPI LIMITED
TEVA.N TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
CCK CROWN HOLDINGS INC.
RXL REXEL SA
DBG DERICHEBOURG SA
725180 STADA ARZNEIMITTEL AG
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
TUI1 TUI AG
NEX NEXANS SA
VED VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
VCP VICTORIA PLC
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
BBD.B BOMBARDIER INC. CLASS B
SYNT SYNTHOMER PLC
INTRUM INTRUM AB
888 888 HOLDINGS PLC
IPF INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE PLC
ENQ ENQUEST PLC
EDR EDREAMS ODIGEO SA
TC1 TELE COLUMBUS AG
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
103M SASOL LIMITED
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
TALK TALKTALK TELECOM GROUP PLC
TATAMOTORS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
PL8 PLAYTECH PLC
ARW ARROW GLOBAL GROUP PLC
NEMAKA NEMAK S.A.B. DE C.V.
SPIE SPIE SA
CEXA CEMEX SAB DE CV (ADR)
ARD ARDAGH GROUP S.A. CLASS A
PFL PFLEIDERER GROUP SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
CDR CODERE S.A.
GAME GAMENET GROUP SPA
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS PLC
AXA AXACTOR SE
BORR SECURITAS DIRECT AB CL B
BORR DRILLING LTD
- Jonathan Chaplin
A closer look at Cox footprint
We’ve been getting questions from clients about competitive dynamics in Cox’s markets after Charter announced its acquisition. In this note, we use Broadband Insights to explore the fiber competition in Cox’s markets today and in the future, who the largest competitors are, and market demographics.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR / Cox: thoughts following the call and detailed deal analysis
We published an initial take yesterday. Blair published his report on regulatory risks to the deal. In this report, we provide quick estimates for synergies, a pro forma model, thoughts on leverage and share repurchases, accretion / dilution, and valuation.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Vallourec, Aggreko, TK Elevator, Aston Martin, Techem, Bite, Virgin Media O2, NewDay, Sunrise, Digi Communications, Telecom Italia, Banijay, Liberty Global, Solenis, Air France-KLM, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), Forvia (formerly Faurecia), Flora Food Group (formerly Upfield), Premier Foods, The Very Group, Lecta, Air Baltic, Teva, Standard Profil
- James Ratzer
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 1Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds declined from an already weak pace a year ago and are well below the pre-pandemic norm. The expected recovery following the end of ACP didn’t materialize. We ponder whether growth is structurally lower, or whether temporary ACP-related pressures have persisted longer than expected.
- Haidje Rustau
Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytic...
Liberty Global (LG) has released disappointing Q1/25 numbers, owing to weak subscriber dynamics. Revenues and adjusted EBITDA grew y-o-y. Cash-flow performance was mixed, with OCF rising while taxes paid and capex increased. Total debt was up, while the cash balance improved slightly. Management aims to reduce leverage, with asset sales ongoing at VodafoneZiggo. However, LG still plans to pay material dividends. Market conditions are set to remain very difficult, and the near-term outlook is...
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
- Trung Nguyen
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Playtech, Scan Global Logistics, Liberty Global, Clarios, TalkTalk, Modulaire, Klockner Pentaplast, EnQuest Plc, Tata Motors, Cirsa, Ineos, Motel One, Ineos Quattro
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral) VMO2, VodafoneZiggo, Telenet (Underweight) Q...
The weaker broadband adds at VMO2 reported this morning were only half the story. With the full Liberty Global results, there has also been a material guidance reduction for VodafoneZiggo. We addressed the VMO2 numbers in more detailed in our earlier note here – and now in this note we do a more detailed dive into VodafoneZiggo and how leverage trends could develop over the next few years based on the new guidance and the potential tower sale.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Neopharmed, PureGym, Rexel, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group), David Lloyd Leisure, Odido, Liberty Global, Infopro Digital, Eircom, Tele Columbus, McLaren, Nexans, Fedrigoni, Stada, Grupo Antolin, Cerba, Klockner Pentaplast, Cheplapharm, Crown Holdings, Motel One, Stena AB, Casino Guichard-Perrachon
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR and CMCSA: correcting price comparisons
This note corrects the pricing comparison we showed for Comcast and Charter last week. When we checked pricing on the Charter website, we were presented with an old Spectrum One offer, for some reason. In this note, we include a more complete comparison of pricing across both categories of offers available at both companies. The punchline: Charter’s rack rates have come down a lot.
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