NSR Policy: BEAD Adjustments Certain but Details Still Cloudy

Yesterday, we published a note on whether T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk will come out on top with revisions to the BEAD program that Republicans are contemplating. As we noted, there are numerous changes we felt confident Republicans would do, such as removing a fiber preference, that will have no material impact on publicly traded companies. But there are several other changes that could, including whether the federal government will impose a high-cost threshold on states that will shift funds f...

Will T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk Come Out on Top with BEAD Revisions?

While the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans have sent some signals about how they will revise the $42.5 Billion Biden Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program, there has been no definitive word yet on key issues regarding those revisions. That may change today, when there is a congressional hearing on the program. In this note, we review the potential changes from the investor perspective, with a focus on the relative benefits to wireline broadband providers (par...

Carriers could spend $180BN on spectrum over the next four years

In this note we cover the potential timing of all the major spectrum auctions and transactions that could occur during the current administration, the amount of financial capacity the carriers have for purchasing this spectrum, and the intrinsic value of the spectrum. The analysis has important implications for EchoStar and for the three national carriers.

Autumn for Broadband 4Q24

In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved again with net adds flat vs. last year. We expect organic net adds to recover next year due to lack of ACP headwind. Though the recovery could be impacted by immigration related headwinds.

Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q4 FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytic...

Liberty Global’s Q4/24 results were disappointing overall, with weak top-line and margin trends. Subscriber development was not as strong as we had forecast, though we note positively the improved outlook for the UK.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nexans, TK Elevator, The Very Group, Liberty Global, Tereos, Ontex, Recordati, TI Fluid Systems, THOM Europe, Borr Drilling, Klockner Pentaplast, Casino Guichard-Perrachon

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Odigeo, TGS ASA, Constellium, United Group, Liberty Global, Klockner Pentaplast, evoke (formerly 888 Holdings), Azelis, Recordati, Vedanta Resources

Liberty Global (Neutral, $16, +42%) Q4 24 - A tough FCF outlook for 20...

Liberty Global faces a challenging time ahead with the continual trade-off of financial engineering vs. underlying fundamentals – and we think the latter will always win in the end.

Thoughts on Altafiber

Based on press reports from a couple of weeks ago, Altafiber has hired advisors for a strategic review. This may not be new; there were rumors that Altafiber was up for sale while the Frontier process was underway. This note explores the assets, the competitive dynamics in their markets, their end-state penetration, and their value. We are mostly using this as a vehicle to preview some of the new features that the Data Analytics team have built into Broadband Insights over the last three mont...

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nexans, TK Elevator, Liberty Global, Ontex, Allwyn (formerly Sazka), Merlin Entertainments, Borr Drilling, Neopharmed

NSR Policy Spectrum Battles: A Field Guide

In 2025, the federal government will address multiple issues related to spectrum. While not all the issues will be resolved by the end of the year, the policy and political processes related to specific bands will provide greater clarity about the direction of policy, and the winners and losers, throughout the year.

CMCSA vs CHTR: Unpacking the difference in broadband trends

Charter has reported better subscriber trends than Comcast for the last two quarters, with the performance gap expanding in 4Q24. In this brief note we attempt to explain the difference in performance.

Winter for Wireless

Four of the five carriers that have reported so far expect to increase or maintain net adds in 2025. The sell-side has taken them at their word; consensus expectations reflect a sharp increase in adds for the group in 2025. We think net adds will decline in 2025. Somebody will miss expectations, potentially by a lot. We walk through who is most at risk of missing on adds or EBITDA in this note.

Charter Post-4Q24 Model Update

This note focuses on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. The major change was slightly lower broadband losses. We think consensus is in the right place on broadband losses for 2025. Our near-term price target is $386 (+12%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $740 (+115%).

CHTR: Quick thoughts following the 4Q24 call

The Charter call had important insights for the Company, for cable more broadly, and for the industry. In an attempt to be timely, I will cover a handful of themes briefly in this note, with a view to expanding on these themes in due course.

CHTR 4Q24 Quick Take: Subscriber trends better than feared; financials...

After Comcast’s miss yesterday, investors have been braced for disappointing adds at Charter. The loss was better than we expected, though a touch worse than consensus (we suspect buy-side was braced for something closer to our estimate). EBITDA was right inline with our estimate, and ahead of consensus. The Company gave new Capex guidance, which will be a focus on the call. Charter has built up a nice reservoir for repurchases following the Liberty Broadband shareholder vote.

The CHTR/CMCSA/TMUS Dance: Comparing Government Approvals?

As the market perceives a larger window opening for M&A, there has been significant interest in the relative ease or difficulty of the antitrust/regulatory path for approval for two potential suitors for CHTR—CMCSA and TMUS. In this note we analyze both the traditional antitrust considerations (advantage CMCSA), the current political elements (advantage TMUS), how both can act in ways to mitigate the risks, events in the future that might change, and how the transaction may affect the ultimate ...

Liberty Global - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2025 - Lucror Analytics

In this publication, we review the past year and discuss our outlook for the next 12 months. We begin our discussion with the macro factors at play, including GDP forecasts, the geopolitical landscape and our expectations for cost inflation. We also trace the development of primary markets in the European HY space, and give our view on defaults in general as well as for our coverage universe. We then discuss sector trends and expectations, along with earnings development for companies under our ...

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Air Baltic, TAP, Liberty Global, United Group, Techem, THOM Europe, Flora Food Group (formerly Upfield), Softbank Group, Aggreko, Ineos, Premier Foods, Elior