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Tele2 AB: 1 director

A director at Tele2 AB sold 31,329,972 shares at 93.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK110, +17%) Iliad Iliad/NJJ buys Kinnevik stak...

Iliad has announced that it is buying Kinnevik’s 19.8% stake in Tele2. In this report, we look at the implications for Iliad and the Swedish market ,drawing on our knowledge of other Iliad/NJJ owned-assets (Salt/eir/Play etc).

Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - 8% dividend yield supportive

The Q4 report was mixed, with headline numbers above consensus, but lower than expected EBITDA growth guidance for 2024 and higher capex guidance for 2025. However, we believe the new cost savings programme indicates accelerated EBITDA growth in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK113, +25%) Q4 23: Good result, but 2024 EBITDA...

Tele2 has reported a good set of Q4 numbers with EBITDAal +1.8% ahead of consensus expectations and EFCF 23% ahead. Total end-user SR trends are unchanged, but EBITDAaL growth has rebounded as expected to +4.0% y/y from +0.5% y/y (both ex energy).

Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - We see a solid Q4

We forecast improved service revenue and EBITDA growth YOY versus Q3, but this is fully reflected by consensus. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price. We however prefer Telia over Tele2.

Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - High confidence in dividend yield

Tele2’s Q3 EFCF was solid, and although some parameters are set to be reversed in Q4e, the improved EFCF and solid balance sheet should secure a stable SEK6.80 DPS for 2023e. We even believe the risk could be on the upside. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK110, +29%) Q2 23: Solid results, better EBITDA...

Tele2 has reported a solid set of Q3 numbers with end-user SR +0.8% ahead of consensus expectations, EBITDAaL is +0.6% ahead, and EFCF is 43% ahead. Total end-user SR trends are broadly unchanged (a touch slower), and although LFL EBITDAaL growth is better at +2.9% y/y from 0.0% y/y in Q2 23, energy is now a tailwind (from a headwind in Q2 23), and ex energy, EBITDAaL is unchanged +0.5% y/y from +0.5% y/y in Q2 23.

Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Q3e EBITDA growth set to improve

As with Telia, we forecast Tele2 to see improved EBITDA growth YOY in Q3, partly driven by lower energy prices. However, we expect greater improvement for Telia, as the drag from TV&Media is easing. We are fairly in line with consensus on Tele2’s Q3 service revenue and EBITDA, but below on EFCF. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price, but prefer Telia over Tele2.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Telia (Buy), Telenor (Buy), Tele2: Sweden spectrum ends early with a g...

The Swedish 900MHz/2.1GHz/2.6GHz auction has ended after only a few days of bidding. We show the results in this short piece. We are Buyers of Telia and Telenor and would see this result as a modest catalyst for both.

Aurore Tigerschiöld ... (+15)
  • Aurore Tigerschiöld
  • Douglas Lindahl
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Johan Skoglund
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Miika Ihamaki
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Niklas Wetterling
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Stefan Gauffin
Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Still a bird in the hand

Tele2 surprised the market with its guidance for significantly higher capex for 2023 and 2024 during the 5G roll-out and coax network upgrade. We still see room for it to maintain its ordinary dividend while remaining at the lower end of its target capital structure. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK100 (107).

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK120, +29%) Q2 23: Mixed results, and capex gui...

Tele2 has reported a mixed set of Q1 numbers with end-user SR +1.3% ahead of consensus expectations, but EBITDAal -0.3% light, and EFCF is -10.9% light. In addition, Tele2 has lifted capex guidance for 2023 and for the mid-term quite materially (but left EBITDAal guidance unchanged).

Martin Arnell ... (+3)
  • Martin Arnell
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Stefan Gauffin
Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK107.00) - Up to BUY following recent weak share pri...

We expect a soft Q2, similar to Q1. However, following price increases and tailwind from lower electricity costs, we see an improved growth rate for H2. Owing to the recent share price weakness we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but have cut our target price to SEK107 (110).

Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK110.00) - EBITDA should pick up in H2

Tele2 reported negative organic EBITDA growth in Q1 due to weak performance in Sweden. We expect a soft Q2, but EBITDA growth should pick up in H2e. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK110 target price.

Håkon Astrup ... (+9)
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Miika Ihamaki
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin
Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Tele2 Q1 23: Mixed results, a lot to do in the rest of year - Quick Ta...

Tele2 has reported a mixed set of Q1 numbers with end-user SR +0.6% ahead of consensus expectations, but EBITDAal is -1.3% light (and within that Sweden is c-4% light and The Baltics are c+6% ahead), and EFCF is -10.9% light.

Douglas Lindahl ... (+10)
  • Douglas Lindahl
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Mads Brinkmann Andersen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Niklas Wetterling
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Steffen Evjen
Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK110.00) - Downgraded to HOLD after 23% return YTD

Tele2 is set to report its Q1 results at 07:00 CET on 21 April. For FY 2023, our estimates on service revenue and EBITDA are in line with consensus and guidance. With a 20% stock overhang from Kinnevik also, we have downgraded Tele2 to HOLD (BUY) but reiterate our SEK110 target price.

Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK110.00) - FCF issue a short-term headache

Q4 results disappointed with weak cash flow due to NWC. This led to a lower-than-expected dividend and less likelihood for a special dividend in 2023. We believe the cash flow issues are short-term, and reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK110 (115).

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