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Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, March 21, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$8.83/Target: HK$11.00): 2023: Results beat on margins again; upgrade to BUY. Raise target price from HK$6.50 to HK$11.00. Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$39.35/Target: HK$60.00): 2023: Results beat; well positioned for sustainable growth in 2024. Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$52.25/Target: HK$85.00): 4Q23: Resilient earnings beat; strong ad monetisation momentum continues. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$21.45/Target: HK$19.60): 2023: Results miss; remain c...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
TME TENCENT MUSIC
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
1833 PING AN HEALTHCARE AND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
LHN LHN LTD
AIRPORT MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
- Jin Yoon
TME 4Q23 Results: Subs Remain a Key Growth Driver in 2024
What’s new: TME’s 4Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations. Subs remain a key rev growth driver where quarterly net adds in 2024 could resemble the trend in 2023. We up our PT from USD9 to USD13 on a better FY24 outlook. Our revised PT of USD13 implies a 20.6x FY24 P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
TME 3Q23 Results: Improving Outlook for FY24
What's new: TME’s 3Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations. Subs could remain resilient in 4Q and heading into 2024 driven by both quarterly net adds and monthly ARPPU. We up our PT from USD8 to USD9 on improving outlook for FY24. Our revised PT of USD9 implies a 3.2x FY24 EV/Revs. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
TME 2Q23 Results: SES to Drag Near Term Outlook
What's new: TME’s 2Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations partly due to drag in SES. Due to impact from risk control measures related to SES, SES could be a major drag in 2H outlook, while OMS could remain resilient. We lower our PT from USD11 to USD8 due to downward revision in top-line expectations. Our revised PT of USD8 implies a 2.9x FY24 EV/Revs. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
TME 1Q23 Results: Strength in Subs
What's new: TME’s 1Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations. Online music services could remain resilient driven by increase in paying users and improvement in monthly ARPPU, while social entertainment could continue to be challenging amid competition and adverse impact from reopening. We maintain our PT at USD11. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
TME: 4Q22 Results - OMS to Remain Resilient in 2023
What's new: TME’s 4Q22 top-line results were above consensus and our expectations. FY23 top-line could grow around mid-single digits YoY driven by resiliency in subscriptions while SES could remain challenging due to competition from the traditional live streaming segment. We maintain our PT at USD11. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 4Q22 Preview - SES Could Remain a Drag
What’s New: We nudge down our 4Q top line estimates as SES could be impacted due to surge in covid cases in the quarter, but up our 4Q margins due to continued cost controls. We increase our PT from USD7 to USD11 as overall business environment, especially ads could continue to show upside amid reopening. Our PT of USD11 implies a 3.8x FY23E EV/Revs. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 3Q22 Results - OMS Continues to Remain Resilient
What's new: 3Q22 results were above consensus and our expectations. OMS could remain resilient driven by growth in subs and recovery in ads, while SES could remain under pressure amid macro uncertainties and competition. We maintain our BUY rating and PT at USD7. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 2Q22 Results - Sub Revs Remain Resilient Despite Tough...
What's new: TME reported 2Q22 top-line results were above consensus and in-line with our expectations. Subscription revenues could remain resilient, and margins could continue to improve in 2H driven by continued cost control measures. We maintain our BUY rating and PT at USD7. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 1Q22 Results - Near Term Visibility Remains Limited Ac...
What's new: TME reported 1Q22 results were largely in line with consensus and our expectations. Subscription revenues could remain resilient, while social entertainment segment could face pressure amid challenging macro and new regulations around live streaming segment. We maintain our BUY rating and PT at USD7. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 1Q22 Preview - Outlook Remain Intact
What’s New: We maintain our 1Q and FY22 estimates as expectations largely remains intact. In this note, we highlight the updates on the business including near-term outlook, competitive landscape, and investments amid uncertainty in the overall environment. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 4Q21 Results - Sub Adds to Slow in FY22
What's new: TME reported 4Q21 results were largely in line with consensus and our expectations. Online music subscriber quarterly net adds is expected to slow down from 4-5mn in FY21 to 3.5mn-4mn in FY22, while live streaming could continue to face pressure amid challenging macro and intensified competition. We maintain our BUY rating but lower our PT from USD10 to USD7 amid slowdown in subscription segment. Our new PT of USD7 implies 1.9x EV/Revs on our FY22 estimates. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 4Q21 Preview - Nudging Down Our Near Term Estimates
What’s New: We lower our 4Q21 and FY22 top-line estimates given the continued weakness in ads and live streaming amid tough macro environment and intensified market competition. Music subscription remains resilient, and quarterly net adds of 4mn-5mn could be intact heading into 2022 driven by increase in contents behind the paywall, improvement in retention rate, and adding more value to the monthly subscription packages. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Sumeet Singh
China ADRs Delisting
On 2nd Dec 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA). On 24th Mar 2021, SEC had issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on HFCAA. This was a follow up on the HFCAA which was signed by Trump on 18th Dec 2020 and which seeks to stop China ADRs from being traded on the US exchanges. We have covered the background in our previous notes: China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb ...
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 3Q21 Results - Subs on Track; FY22 GM Intact Despite W...
What's new: TME reported 3Q21 top-line results were largely in line with consensus estimates, but a touch below our expectations. Online music services revenue is expected to continue its positive momentum heading into FY22 driven by subscription, but regulatory headwinds may impact non-subs revenues in the near term. We maintain our BUY rating and PT at USD10 which implies 4.7x EV/Revs on our FY22 revenue estimates. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
New Street: TME 3Q21 Preview
What’s New: We had our catch-up call with IR today and updated our 2H21 estimates. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and impact from recent regulations around splash ads and fans economy. We lower our price target from $15 to $10 due to near-term impact on the non-core businesses within online music services segment amid heightened regulatory environment. Our new PT of $10 implies 4.6x on our FY22 revenue estimates. We maintain our BUY ...
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