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NENT Group (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Stay tuned for streaming

The Covid-19 crisis has put pressure on NENT’s subscription and advertising business. Key questions are when premium sports will resume, and how NENT will cope with weaker ad markets. We have cut our 2020e and 2021e EBIT by 25% and 13%, respectively. However, we remain positive on Viaplay’s growth outlook, and therefore reiterate our BUY but with a new SEK300 (335) target price.

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NENT Group (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Viaplay case on track

Viaplay subscribers increasing 25% YOY indicates that NENT is on track in gaining market share. The negotiation for Premier League football rights poses a risk, although we believe NENT is well-positioned for an extension especially considering it has the option to bring in partners. We have raised our target price to SEK335 (330) and maintain our BUY.

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NENT Group (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Set for a busy spring 2020

We expect a stable quarter, with strong Viaplay subscriber intake (Q4 results due at 07:00 CET on 4 February). H1 2020 should be a busy period with the creation of the Satellite JV and key football rights negotiations. We believe NENT is becoming a clearer streaming growth story with solid fundamentals. We have fine-tuned our estimates, and maintain our BUY and SEK330 target price.

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NENT Group (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Strengthened growth case

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK330 (280), following several key recent events: 1) the new organisation (savings potential); 2) the Nordic satellite deal (synergies potential); and 3) the Q3 results and a more positive view on 2020 advertising. Near-term catalysts include more details about the savings programme, the Satellite JV business case, and progress in full-year advertising negotiations.

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NENT Group (Buy, TP: SEK280.00) - Our take on the Nordic satellite dea...

After nearly 15 years of market speculation, the Nordic satellite pay-TV deal between Viasat (NENT) and Canal Digital (Telenor) is finally taking place. We expect the 50/50-owned JV to bring substantial cost synergies, and strengthen NENT’s remaining business (particularly the Viaplay streaming business, which should be able to upsell into the sizeable JV, which should enjoy lower churn). The deal is subject to EU regulatory approval and is set to close in H1 2020. Finally, the deal supports o...

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NENT Group (Buy, TP: SEK280.00) - Viaplay on track

We forecast Q3 EBIT up 5% YOY driven by Viaplay subscriber growth but burdened by FX. As NENT nears its 2020 ad contract negotiations, we are cautious on pricing, but due to its growing exposure to streaming subscriptions we still expect 2019–2021 group EBIT CAGR of 7%. We have fine-tuned our estimates and expect clarity on the new organisation with the results. BUY and SEK280 target price reiterated.

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NENT Group (Buy, TP: SEK280.00) - Streaming ahead of the curve

We initiate coverage with a BUY and SEK280 target price. NENT has benefitted from keeping well ahead of industry trends since it started in the late 1980s, and is becoming more leveraged to Nordic streaming growth (MTG spin-off in early 2019). Viaplay is capitalising on structural streaming growth. Despite rising competition, NENT’s content leadership and growth initiatives should be sufficient for further market share gains.