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ABB Ltd: 2 directors

Two Directors at ABB Ltd sold 62,402 shares at between 44.780CHF and 44.933CHF. The significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side

Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...

ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye

Demand growing faster than supply - BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.4bn, '24e-'26e EBIT up 2-3% post report. Market tightening rapidly in Q1 - demand up 5%, supply up 3%. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75.

ABGSC Metals & Mining Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Metals & Mining Research
  • Bengt Jonassen
  • Martin Melbye
Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ABB Ltd. : Solid Q1 reassuring on orders and operational EBITA margin

>Good Q1 set to reassure the market (book-to-bill at 1.1x, operational EBITA margin of 17.9%) - ABB’s Q1 results, reported yesterday morning, were better than expected overall. Order intake came in at $ 9bn, -4% in comparable terms (consensus at -7%), underpinned by the Electrification (EL) and Motion (MO) divisions, at respectively +8% and +1%, while orders fell by 30% at RA and by 20% for Process Automation (PA). Sales came to $ 7.87bn, +2% in comparable terms vs 5%...

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ABB Ltd. : Le T1 solide rassure sur les commandes et sur la marge d’EB...

>Le bon T1 rassure (book-to-bill 1.1x, marge d’op. EBIT à 17.9%) - ABB a publié hier matin des résultats T1 globalement meilleurs qu’attendu. Les prises de commandes atteignent 9 Md$, -4% en comparable (consensus à -7%), soutenues par les divisions Electrification (EL) et Motion (MO), à respectivement +8% et +1%, tandis qu’elles reculent de 30% chez RA et de 20% en Process Automation (PA). Le CA atteint 7 870 M$, +2% en comparable vs 5% attendus par le consensus. La m...

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

ABB (Buy, TP: SEK595.00) - Non, je ne regrette rien

CEO Björn Rosengren’s penultimate report before retiring highlighted the structural improvements made at ABB under his tenure as margins beat our expectations and consensus, and the 2024 margin guidance was raised. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK595 (520), having increased our 2024–2026e operating EBITA by 5–4%. At 15.2x 2024e EV/EBIT (10-year average 15.0x), we believe the stock deserves further re-rating as the valuation still seems to be anchored in historica...

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm

Profitability stars align - guides for 18% margin

Q1'24 op. EBITA margin of 17.9% - above expectations at ~16.5%. Keeps ~5% org. growth view for '24e, adds 18% op. EBITA ambition. We raise op. EBITA by 4-5% in '24e-'25e, reiterate HOLD.

Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ABB Ltd. : A robust start to the year, part of the guidance for 2024 r...

>Q1 2024: book-to-bill of 1.14x, operational EBITA 4% above expectations - This morning, ABB published Q1 sales of $ 7,870m, up 2% l-f-l vs 5% anticipated by the consensus, an “operation EBITA” margin of 17.9% ($ 1,417m) vs 16.8% estimated ($ 1,364m) and order intake of $ 8,974m (a 4% decline l-f-l), better than expected. The book-to-bill was therefore 1.14x. By market, demand remains robust in medium-voltage but the group mentioned (for the first time) a decline in p...

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm
Delphine Brault ... (+2)
  • Delphine Brault
  • Quentin Borie

ABB Ltd. : Un début d’année solide, le groupe relève une partie de sa ...

>T1 2024 : book-to-bill à 1.14x, EBIT opérationnel 4% au-dessus des attentes - ABB a publié ce matin un chiffre d’affaires T1 de 7 870 M$, en hausse de 2% en comparable vs 5% attendus par le consensus, une marge « operational EBITA » de 17.9% (1 417 M$) vs 16.8% attendus (1 364 M$) et des prises de commandes de 8 974 M$ (en recul de 4% en comparable), meilleures qu’attendu. Le book-to-bill atteint ainsi 1.14x. Par marché, la demande reste forte en medium-voltage mais ...

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm

Steady Q1 performance expected

Q1'24 results due on 18 April at 07:00 CET. Steady performance, we raise '24e-'25e op. EBITA by 1-2%. Maintain HOLD, TP up to SEK 485 (455) on slightly higher multiples.

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - 30% below 2025e EPS consensus

We expect aluminium prices to come down with falling global energy prices, and reiterate our SELL and NOK50 target price. We are 30% below consensus on 2025e EBITDA; we do not see large enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as suggested by the price appreciation in recent weeks, we believe. We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK6.2bn (results due at 7:00 CET on 24 April), driven by high hydropower production volumes in the quarter. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by ...

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