Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

ABB Ltd: 2 directors

Two Directors at ABB Ltd sold 62,402 shares at between 44.780CHF and 44.933CHF. The significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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Equinor : Q1 2024 results top expectations thanks to solid cash flow

>Q1 2023 results 5% ahead of expectations at the operating level and 26% at the net income level - Q1 2024 adjusted EBIT totalled $ 7.5bn, 5% above the consensus, and adjusted net profit was $ 2.57bn, 26% above expectations, with an effective tax rate of 65.8% vs 78% in Q3, with a pleasant surprise in MM&P.Earnings buoyed by the good performance from MM&P - Earnings for the E&P division totalled $ 6.75bn (vs $ 8.4bn in Q4), down by 20% q-o-q and in...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

Equinor (Hold, TP: NOK300.00) - Upside still hinges on discipline

Equinor reported Q1 adj. EBIT 3% above our estimate and 5% above company-compiled consensus. Moreover, FCF was exceptionally strong at USD6.3bn, albeit helped by USD3.2bn in a working capital tailwind, which to our understanding is unlikely to reverse. We have increased our 2024e FCF to USD11bn (~13% FCF yield), which would leave Equinor with a ~USD3bn net cash position by year-end. Consequently, we expect this to trigger an extension of extraordinary dividends into 2025, which should be welcome...

Equinor : Résultats T1 supérieurs aux attentes – Cash-flow solide

>Des résultats T1 2024 5% supérieurs aux attentes au niveau opérationnel et 26% au niveau du RN - L’EBIT ajusté du T1 2024 s’est établi à 7.5 Md$, 5% supérieur au consensus et le résultat net ajusté à 2.57 Md$, 26% supérieur aux attentes avec un taux d’impôts effectif à 65.8% vs 78% au T3 avec une bonne surprise dans MM&P.Des résultats aidés par la bonne performance de MM&P - Le bénéfice de l'E&P ressort à 6.75 Md$ (vs 8.4 Md$ au T4) en baisse de 2...

The last strong FCF quarter for a long time

Q1 was solid. Tax and capex will be higher, FCF lower. We stick to SELL, TP to NOK 285 (275) on slightly higher estimates.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Equinor : Q1 results beat expectations by 5% at the operating level an...

>A 5% beat on operating profit and 26% on adjusted net income - Q1 2024 adjusted EBIT came in at $ 7.53bn (vs $ 8.68bn in Q4; -13.2% q-o-q), 4% above our estimates and 5% ahead of consensus. Production declined by 1.3% q-o-q and was in line with expectations and expected to remain flat in 2024 vs 2023. Adjusted net income was robust at $ 2.574bn (vs $ 1.88bn in Q4), 26% above the consensus with a lower-than-expected effective tax rate at 65.8% vs 72% expected. §h...

Equinor : Q1 results beat expectations by 5% at the operating level an...

>A 5% beat on operating profit and 26% on adjusted net income - Q1 2024 adjusted EBIT came in at $ 7.53bn (vs $ 8.68bn in Q4; -13.2% q-o-q), 4% above our estimates and 5% ahead of consensus. Production declined by 1.3% q-o-q and was in line with expectations and expected to remain flat in 2024 vs 2023. Adjusted net income was robust at $ 2.574bn (vs $ 1.88bn in Q4), 26% above the consensus with a lower-than-expected effective tax rate at 65.8% vs 72% expected. §h...

EBIT 5-7% above estimates