Wärtsilä (Buy, TP: EUR20.00) - Smooth sailing

Following strong Q1 orders and earnings, we have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by 4% on average and our target price to EUR20 (18). We reiterate our BUY. We continue to forecast multiyear sales and earnings growth for Wärtsilä, and view it as attractively valued (see our recent report ‘Refuelled engines’).

Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK95.00) - Headwinds for Recycling

Recycling reported disappointing Q1 adj. EBITA of NOK7m on lower revenues, which also hurt margins. Given the solid order intake – a bright spot in the report – we have only reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–4%. We struggle to justify the 2024e P/E of 39x (similar to the ‘Magnificent 7’, with ~20% average annual growth rates) coupled with 2024e revenue growth of only ~3–4% and risk to 2025–2026e growth from potential delays in Poland and the UK’s DRS implementations. We reiterate our SELL and NOK9...

Comfortingly undramatic

In-line Q1 as Auto margin recovered. Estimates unchanged; return to growth modelled for Q4. Adds some support even after partial cyclical re-rating. HOLD.

SKF (Hold, TP: SEK250.00) - Margins going in the right direction

Disregarding some unclarity on fixed-cost under-absorption during the conference call, we view SKF’s Q1 report as solid, especially the better-than-expected adj. EBIT margin, supporting the longer-term margin story. However, cash flow was on the soft side and we struggle to bridge the 2024 guidance, which could become a more prominent risk later in the year. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 3% and target price to SEK250 (240), and reiterate our HOLD.

Sandvik AB: 1 director

A director at Sandvik AB bought 500,000 shares at 228.239SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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Husqvarna (Sell, TP: SEK63.00) - Pressure persists

Continued weak end-market demand, lower production volumes, and a legacy-business exit weighed on sales and earnings in Q1. We expect organic growth and earnings to remain under pressure in 2024. Following the Q1 results, we reiterate our SELL and SEK63 target price.

SKF : A resilient margin despite a marked decline in sales in Q1

>Q1 2024: sales down 7% organic, adjusted EBIT margin up 30bp - This morning, SKF published Q1 2024 results that came in a shade below forecasts on sales but beat expectations on the EBIT margin.Sales were SEK 24.7bn (consensus at SEK 24.8bn), an organic decline of -7% (consensus at -6.5%). This decline resulted in negative volumes at both divisions, with a -7.3% decline in sales for Industrial and -6.2% in Automotive. As expected, the group indicates a marked sl...

SKF : Une marge résiliente malgré la forte baisse du chiffre d’affaire...

>T1 2024 : CA en recul organique de 7%, marge d’EBIT ajusté en hausse de 30 pb - SKF a publié ce matin des résultats T1 2024 légèrement inférieurs aux attentes au niveau du chiffre d’affaires mais supérieurs sur la marge d’EBIT.Le CA atteint 24.7 MdSEK (consensus à 24.8 MdSEK), en recul organique de 7% (consensus à -6.5%). Ce recul embarque des volumes négatifs dans les deux divisions avec un recul du CA de 7.3% pour Industrial et de 6.2% pour Automotive. Comme a...

Metso : Progress on margin reflected with resilience in Q1

>Q1 2024 orders in line but margin below expectations - Metso reported its Q1 2024 results yesterday morning (see first take). They were in line with expectations on order intake, but below expectations on adjusted EBITA (-7%).Order intake was down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%), but up 10.5% sequentially, confirming the rebound in activity that the group was anticipating in the Aggregates division (particularly in the US). Sales were down -7% on ...

Good orders, low equipment sales drive margin mix

Decent margin despite lower auto volume

Metso : Les progrès sur la marge se ressentent avec sa résilience au T...

>T1 2024 avec des commandes en ligne mais en dessous des attentes sur la marge - Metso a publié hier matin ses résultats T1 2024 (voir first take) qui étaient en ligne avec les attentes sur les prises de commandes, mais en dessous sur l’EBITA ajusté (-7%).Les prises de commandes étaient en recul de -6% en organique (css à -5.8%), mais en hausse séquentielle de 10.5%, confirmant ainsi le rebond de l’activité qui avait été anticipé par le groupe dans la division A...

Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK540.00) - Sit back, relax and enjoy the ride

Q1 confirmed that demand remains strong for Alfa Laval and strengthened our view that investors and consensus are exaggerating concerns about the heat pump demand slowdown and underestimating the strength of the Marine market. Alfa Laval remains our sector top pick, being an enabler of the energy transition with promising long-term growth prospects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK540 (495), having increased our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 6–7%.

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR13.00) - Small profit miss, but positives too

Q1 profits missed in a seasonally small quarter but also included positives: solid profitability, and strong Aggregates and Service orders. We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c3% and reiterate our BUY and EUR13 target price. The valuation remains attractive, in our view.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR55.00) - No drama

We have made limited changes to our 2024–2026 forecasts following an overall neutral Q1 (minor order miss but small profit beat versus our expectations), and an unchanged market outlook and 2024 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and EUR55 target price.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Q1 miss, but also demonstration of resilience

Orders and margins fine, but equipment sales gap, EBITA -8%. Adj. EBITA'24e-'26e down 2-3%. Not worrying, and good end-market and value support - BUY

Easily brushing HVAC weakness aside

Orders 11% higher, with Marine and Energy jumping. Sales lagged, but no major concern; adj EBITA +4%. Great exposure, visibility, financials - keep BUY