Akzo's 4Q25 results were roughly in line with previous quarters, with weak volumes and negative FX leading to a slight decline in adjusted EBITDA, despite sizeable efficiency improvement initiatives. 2026 is expected to bring more of the same, with Akzo forecasting flat volumes and an FY26 adjusted EBITDA that is guided to be up at least 2% (or at least 7% excluding negative FX and scope effects). With current efficiency improvement initiatives expected to have mostly run their course in 2027, t...
Aalberts: Preview: Another quarter in no man's land? / Ahold Delhaize: Confirms the acquisition of Delfood / AGEAS: China – state to inject capital into insurers / AkzoNobel: Tepid 4Q25 results and FY26 outlook / D'Ieteren: Belgian car registrations down 19%, 65% of 2019 level, VW down only 5% / Xior Student Housing: Sound organic trends continue, two-year guidance revealed
4Q adjusted EBITDA dropped by 4% y/y and was in line with our forecast while being 2% below consensus. Akzo guides for a FY26 adj EBITDA at or above € 1.47bn, which is at the low end 2% below our forecast and 4% below consensus. The merger with Axalta is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027. Taking into account the volatile track record and low structural growth, we maintain our Hold rating and € 65 target price.
We adjust our estimates to reflect the divestment of AkzoNobel India and recent FX and demand trends, with a continuation of the muted demand backdrop seen YTD, specifically in the US coatings segment. We maintain our HOLD recommendation and target price at €65 per share.
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