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Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Is AI meant to absorb legacy or drive redesigns? Conversation with the...

Earlier this summer we had a fantastic conversation with Pankaj Patel, CEO of Nile. Nile provides a fully automated, subscription-based network-as-a-service platform that delivers secure, scalable connectivity without the complexity of legacy infrastructure. Follow the below link for our top thoughts on the back of this conversation.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Hot Chips 2025: memory, interconnects, and full-stack optimizations at...

Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Hot Chips conference, still the place to be for investors who want to understand chip architecture and how it can impact competitive dynamics. ​​We followed presentations on datacenter XPUs, system-scale integration, and full-stack innovation, by Microsoft, Google, Meta, Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, Marvell, Huawei, and others. Ping us for slide packs if you want the full primary material.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The Great Replatforming, Part II – The General Theory. Could Jensen ju...

In a very timely manner, as Jensen just touted a $3-4tn Tech. Infra. market for 2030, we publish the second part of our “Great Replatforming” series, in which we look at how much AI investments the global economy can absorb over time. In the first part of the series, we showed how increasing capex should be analyzed as enablers of revenue growth and productivity improvements, and applied the framework to hyperscalers, showing how pushing capex intensity to new highs is easily financed by contin...

Cisco Systems Inc: 1 director

A director at Cisco Systems Inc sold 7,511 shares at 66.838USD and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Arista Networks Inc: 1 director

A director at Arista Networks Inc sold after exercising options/sold 56,000 shares at 136.507USD and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's direct...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

CoreWeave profitability; DeepSeek’s ASIC try; Semicap; PC pull-forward...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 9 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months. With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs; this is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should ...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Cisco 4FQ25: Cyclical recovery played out; healthy but slowing outlook...

Cisco reported 3FQ25 (1Q25) on Wednesday. Please click the link below for our take on the print.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

AMD GPUs, Cyber HW refresh, Arista, Auto cycle and more.

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 34 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ
Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Meta 2Q25: Replatforming overdrive.

Meta reported 2Q25. Please click the link for our updated perspective on capex and technology infrastructure.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

What makes a neo-cloud so special? Conversation with the CEO of togeth...

We hosted the second webcast of our AI transforming Industries series a few weeks ago. We had a fantastic conversation with Vipul Ved Prakash, CEO of together.ai, a GPU “Neo-Cloud” with tens of thousands of Nvidia GPUs deployed, powering open-source models and high-performance AI workloads at scale. Please see the link below our top thoughts on the back of this conversation, along with a full transcript.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Replatforming Analysts and Disintermediating SaaS? Top takes from our ...

We hosted the third webcast of our AI transforming Industries series last week. We had a fantastic conversation with Ketan Karkhanis, CEO of ThoughtSpot on how AI is disrupting business analytics. Please see the link below our top thoughts on the back of this conversation, along with a full transcript.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The Great Replatforming, part I – the Special Theory

Capex ROI is the trending question these days, but what does it actually mean? In a “replatforming”, capex are enablers of revenue growth and productivity enhancements, as long as they are the foundation for a good “right to make money” (a defensible competitive advantage) and meet good demand. Our “Special Replatforming Theory” looks at how it has been at play for a decade already at hyperscalers, and how we expect the next 10 years to play out, with AI bringing an even more capital-intensive...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 1Q25

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 237 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 1Q25 – Enterprise IT: AI drives Cloud growth, SaaS not reacceler...

Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending is moderating after a strong 2H24, but public-cloud growth remains steady as AI demand offsets a slowdown in traditional workloads. SaaS revenue growth remains in the low-teens with...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Growth in Public Cloud: Where from? What’s next?

Growth in Public Cloud reaccelerated, in line with our expectations, and, if anything, even stronger than we thought, and shifting fast, with AI representing an increasing share of public cloud growth, and with the fast-growing crowd of native AI start-ups becoming a meaningful segment. We gathered all the initial datapoints at hand and looked at all angles we could, to provide a first perspective of how public cloud is growing today and where it is headed next.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 1Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: Inference inflecting, more hints on 2...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Telecom Infrastructure, Memory, Enterprise IT, and PCs. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, and acce...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Nvidia gains share in AI Ethernet, but loses share in AI networking, b...

Nvidia announced last night that its Spectrum X Ethernet revenues have reached an $8bn run rate. Please see the one-pager below for our view on the implications for Arista and Nvidia.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Cisco 3FQ25: Recovery played out; stock in a good place. Wait for the ...

Cisco reported 3FQ25 (1Q25) on Wednesday. Please click the link below for our take on the print.

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