reports
- Kavinda Perera
Commercial Bank Of Ceylon: 2Q CY21 - Improved credit growth, higher NI...
We maintain our TP for COMB at LKR 105.00/share (+25.6% upside; +34.0% TSR) and for COMBX at LKR 87.00/share (+14.8% upside; +24.0% TSR) and rate both classes BUY. Strong credit growth (4.8% QoQ) and deposit repricing drove a 52.9% YoY growth in net profit in 2Q, while normalised trading/FX gains vs. 1Q, led to a 18.3% sequential drop in PAT. We maintain our thesis that COMB would see 1) better loan growth, 2) NIM expansion and 3) moderating impairments leading to stronger ROE in CY21E. Howev...
- Kavinda Perera
Commercial Bank Of Ceylon: 1Q CY21 - Strong deposit repricing drives b...
We maintain our TP for COMB at LKR 105.00/share (+24.4% upside; +32.7% TSR) and for COMBX at LKR 87.00/share (+15.7% upside; +25.0% TSR) and rate both classes BUY. PAT in 1Q CY21 marked a 79.3% YoY growth (+14.9% QoQ) which came on the back of a strong NII growth and robust credit growth (2.6% QoQ). We note that 1Q is a testament to the speed of recovery the bank could expect once economic activity resumes after the third wave concerns subside. While we cut our loan growth forecast for CY21E ...
- Kavinda Perera
Sri Lanka: Banking SL - Rising above the clouds
* Sector valuations at a decade low, driven by weakening ROEs and foreign investor exits * Major factors which weighed down profitability to fall away in CY21E, paving the way for better ROE * The banks index took the biggest hit during the pandemic; potential for a rerating with improving fundamentals * Top line to pick up on loan growth and NIM expansion * Gradual improvement in asset quality to lead to lower Cost of Risk * Normalising cost efficiency, tax savings ...
- Kavinda Perera
Commercial Bank Of Ceylon: Sri Lanka: COMB SL - Strong NII momentum & ...
We increase our TP for COMB to LKR 105.00/share (+5.0% to old; +24.3% upside; +32.5% TSR) and for COMBX to LKR 87.00/share (+4.8% to old; +11.3% upside; +20.2% TSR). We maintain BUY for both classes. PAT in 4Q CY20 was flat YoY (+59.0% QoQ) which came on the back of a strong NII growth reflecting robust CASA, coupled with faster deposit repricing. Along with this, we expect NIMs to improve in CY21E, albeit modestly, and mainly in 2H. Loan growth in CY20 was 3.3% YoY, and with the expected eco...
- Isuri Munasinghe
- Kavinda Perera
- Lakshini Fernando
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka: 2021 Equity Strategy - Zero In On The Recovery
* Colombo All Share Price Index ( recovered all losses since bottoming out in May 56 7 since May, +8.6% YTD) A Manufacturing drive led the gains opportunities remain in large caps that are yet to pickup * Negative interest rates is the key catalyst equities will remain the preferred asset class in 2021 amidst a low interest rate environment * We forecast ASPI to reach 7 400 7 600 in 2021 with local investors continuing to carry the mantle * Global investors would look to rebal...
SAMP.N0000 SAMPATH BANK
HNB.N0000 HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC
COMB.N0000 COMMERCIAL BANK OF CEYLON
AAIC.N0000 SOFTLOGIC LIFE INSURANCE PLC
JKH.N0000 JOHN KEELLS HOLDINGS PLC
AEL.N0000 ACCESS ENGINEERING
CCS.N0000 CEYLON COLD STORES
HHL.N0000 HEMAS HOLDINGS
RCL.N0000 ROYAL CERAMICS LANKA
- Kavinda Perera
Commercial Bank Of Ceylon: 3Q CY20 - Valuation discounts medium-term g...
We increase our TP for COMB to LKR 95.00/share (+3.3% to old; +24.8% upside; +33.4% TSR) while valuing COMBX at a TP of LKR 77.50/share (+3.3% to old; +16.4% upside; +26.1% TSR). We maintain BUY for both classes. PAT in 3Q CY20 saw a 23.3% YoY drop mainly due to a steep rise in impairments, which we believe were taken as a prudential measure to account for the weak operating conditions in 4Q. Given the second wave concerns, our loan growth forecast drops to 2.8% for CY20E. We believe a recove...
- Kavinda Perera
Commercial Bank Of Ceylon: Q2 CY 20 — Tax benefits, FX gain boosts ...
We increase our TP for COMB to LKR 92.00/share (+6.4% to old; +10.7% upside; +16.7% TSR) while valuing COMBX at a TP of LKR 75.00/share (+1.4% to old; +10.1% upside; +17.5% TSR). We maintain Buy for both classes. PAT in 2Q CY20 grew 4.6% YoY largely backed by FX and investment gains coupled with NBT and DRL cut. With business sentiment improving, we expect 2H CY20E growth to be relatively better (loan growth of 5.0% for CY20E) but forecast soft operating results for CY20E. IFC’s LKR 10bn inj....
- Isuri Munasinghe
- Kavinda Perera
- Lakshini Fernando
- Mangalee Goonetilleke
- Naveed Majeed
Sri Lanka Focus List: 8 stocks – a mix of value and growth
Equities saw a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in May and June, largely driven by local participation, as foreign investors continued to exit. The ASPI has seen a measured upward move, and the trend seems to be continuing. With economic activities resuming, we see our base case economic scenario taking effect. While major debt-repayment concerns are somewhat easing, bond markets indicate that the fiscal risk is being priced in. We highlight eight stocks, which hold upside potential in the current envi...
- Kavinda Perera
Commercial Bank Of Ceylon: Private placement to boost Tier 1 CAR
COMB announced a private placement with IFC for up to LKR 10bn in voting shares to boost tier 1. The offer will add up to 125mn shares at LKR 80.00/share (38.5% discount to BVPS) and dilute the BV by 4.1% on our calculations. We note that this financing is a positive given that it boosts tier 1 for future growth. Given the market re-rating seen over the past few weeks, we up our TP for COMB to LKR 86.50/share (LKR 64.50/share previously; +9.8% upside; +16.1% TSR) and LKR 74.00/share for COMB...
Commercial Bank Of Ceylon PLC: 1 director bought
A director at Commercial Bank Of Ceylon PLC bought 150,000 shares at 69.800LKR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last ...
- Kavinda Perera
Commercial Bank Of Ceylon: 1Q CY20 – Tax breaks offer some respite i...
We cut our TP for COMB to LKR 64.50/share (-41.4% to old; +15.0% upside; +23.9% TSR) while valuing COMBX at a TP of LKR 54.50/share (-41.5% to old; +8.8% upside; +18.8% TSR). We maintain BUY for both on extremely weak valuations. PAT in 1Q CY20 grew 20.3% YoY largely backed by FX gains and the removal of NBT and DRL. While we expect the operating results to weaken during the year on 1) slow loan growth, 2) higher impairments and 3) narrowing NIM, we believe that the risks are well priced in a...
- Kavinda Perera
Sri Lanka banks: Muted profitability, but limited systemic pressure
In this report, we highlight the pressing current themes around the banking sector. Overall, majority of the Sri Lankan government’s key support measures for the economy are implemented through the banking system, and the banks are expected to absorb the economic shock partially. In return, banks have received several concessions to maintain the systemic stability. We expect sector profitability to be muted in CY 20e, with (1) weak credit growth, (2) contracting margins, (3) lower supplementa....
- Pasindu Perera
- Pasindu Perera
- Lourdeena Kudaliyanage
JKSB Quarterly Highlights_Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC (COMB)_2QCY17
COMB reported an 18% YoY increase in earnings for 2QCY17, driven primarily by 1) 15% YoY growth in net interest income, supported by a healthy 21% YoY increase in net loan book amid a slight 0.15ppt YoY contraction in NIM; 2) a sharp reversal in net trading gains/losses (gain of Rs. 482mn for the quarter vs. a loss of Rs. 1.9bn in 2QCY16); and 3) increased net fee & commission income (+33% YoY), supported by growth in remittances and credit/debit card operations. The contraction in NIM comes am...
- Pasindu Perera
- Lourdeena Kudaliyanage
JKSB Full Year Highlights_Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC (COMB)_CY16
COMB reported a healthy 22% YoY increase in full year earnings for CY16, driven mainly by 1) an 8% YoY increase in net interest income, supported by 22% loan book growth (amid a slight contraction in NIM); a 2) a reversal of Rs. 1.9bn on collective impairment charges; and 3) a lower effective tax rate for the year. NIM contraction (-0.2ppt YoY to 3.47%) for the year, stems largely from a lower CASA ratio (-8ppt YoY to 42%) which reflects a widening interest rate differential between savings and ...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
- Navin Ratnayake
JKSB Quarterly Highlights_Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC_1QFY16
​Commercial Bank grew earnings strongly over the first quarter with moderate gains in net interest income bolstered by fees and commission income gains, controlled operational costs and lower impairment charges. A decline in other income was offset by strong gains in trading. The largest impacts have been from rupee depreciation and interest rate rises on OCI
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