We are optimistic on Shenzhou’s order growth in 2024, which will be mainly driven by Adidas and PUMA as destocking activities are coming to an end, although orders from Nike will see only modest growth. Shenzhou’s gross margin will improve sequentially to a normalised level by end-24, in our view, driven by higher capacity utilisation and product optimisation. Maintain BUY and raise target price by 6% to HK$99.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Healthcare Going through a prolonged funding winter, China’s biopharma market is still growing at a CAGR of 6.9% in 2019-24, outpaced the global industry. Leading players have continuously enhanced their R&D capabilities with increasing new product launches. Innovation is driving growth and supporting the industry’s rosy outlook. The number of innovative drugs launched in China rocketed from 1 in 2017 to 34 in 2023. Our top picks are Innovent and Hansoh Pharma. Maintain...
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: From surviving to thriving. Hong Kong Property: Expect normalised primary transactions and continued weakness of retail sales in May; watch for possible policy support. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$83.35/Target: HK$99.60): Optimistic on order growth in 2024; margin expansion a key driver. INDONESIA Results Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ/HOLD/Rp1,445/Target: Rp1,500): 1Q24: Excellent SG&A management results in double-digit NPAT growth. Mitra...
During the Labour Day holiday, tourism and catering continued to record strong performances, while DF per capita spending showed a downward trend. We reiterate our key theses for the consumer sector, highlighting companies with: a) overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) upside potential of improving operating efficiency, or c) near-term catalysts. We keep Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks, but remove Galaxy from the stock picks. Mainta...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
The HSI and MSCI China rose 7.4% and 6.4% mom respectively in April, lifted by news of a stock connect scheme expansion and further easing of restrictions on property purchases in China. With the July Politburo likely to see further supportive policy rollout, we are adding beneficiaries of improving domestic consumption − CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou and Tencent − to our BUY list, and closing out our SELL calls.
In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2023 results were in line with consensus despite missing on top-line. Revenue resumed growth in 4Q23, and management is optimistic on the order growth momentum in 2024. Production utilisation rate has been back to 100% in 1Q24 and overseas production efficiency has also improved, which will support Shenzhou’s margin expansion, in our view. Maintain BUY and fine-tune target price by 1% to HK$93.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anta (2020 HK/BUY/HK$83.55/Target: HK$109.60) 2023: Results beat on margin; on track to fulfil three-year targets. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$4.50/Target: HK$5.60) 2023: Weaker-than-expected results; development targets revised. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$24.85/Target: HK$42.39) 2023: Results in line; clearer growth path ahead. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.60/Target: HK$33.20) 2023: Results beat with higher payout ratio; pursue high-quality grow...
GREATER CHINA Results Anta (2020 HK/BUY/HK$83.55/Target: HK$109.60): 2023: Results beat on margin; on track to fulfil three-year targets. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$24.85/Target: HK$42.39): 2023: Results in line; clearer growth path ahead. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.60/Target: HK$33.20): 2023: Results beat with higher payout ratio; pursue high-quality growth. Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK/SELL/HK$3.24/Target: HK$2.20): 2023: Earnings miss estimate again on margin squeeze. Maintain SELL. Cut tar...
During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
The Chinese economy will see a gradual climb higher in 2024, hitting 4% yoy growth, with private consumption providing much of the heavy lifting. Policy easing will be incremental, focusing on the real estate sector and local government financing. Until these issues are resolved, PE expansion will be limited. Thus, EPS growth will be the key driver, with an index target of 67.3pt. Our focus is on smart consumption, premiumisation and turnaround stocks, staying negative on the auto sector.
The Chinese economy will see a gradual climb higher in 2024, hitting 4% yoy growth, with private consumption providing much of the heavy lifting. Policy easing will be incremental, focusing on the real estate sector and local government financing. Until these issues are resolved, PE expansion will be limited. Thus, EPS growth will be the key driver and our index target is at 67.3pt. Our focus is on smart consumption, premiumisation and turnaround stocks. Staying the course. The Central Financ...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
Shenzhou’s 1H23 results missed market consensus by 7%, mainly due to the weakerthan- expected top-line. However, we believe that the worst is over for Shenzhou. Orders continue to recover going into 3Q23, and are expected to record orders’ positive growth from early-4Q23. We expect gross margin to improve given better production capacity utilisation. Maintain BUY and fine-tune target price by 2% to HK$86.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...
GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance: Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80): 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48): 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further strengthened. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/SELL/HK$40.15/Target: HK$33.00): 2Q23: Report profit beats on one-off gains, core earnings in line. Maintain SELL....
Shenzhou’s vertically-integrated position, strong R&D capabilities and good ESG practices anchor its leading position in the textile industry. We are positive on Shenzhou’s customer expansion and production efficiency improvement in the long term. Raise target price by 6% to HK$85.00. Maintain BUY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales expected to grow 15.5% mom in June, beating estimates. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT with preference for EV segment. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Update Kuaishou (1024 HK/BUY/HK$56.70/Target: HK$90.00) Best positioned for advertising comeback; to break even in 2Q23. Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/HOLD/HK$19.16/Target:HK$18.00) 2023 revenue under pressure; corporate client acquisition to drive growth. Downgrade to HOLD. Shenzhou...
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