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Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hong Kong Property: Striking A New Equilibrium

The IPO revival proves Hong Kong is re-emerging as a key hub for talent and capital amid geopolitical risks, benefitting the property market. Hong Kong’s repositioning is expected to shape the property industry’s new equilibrium over the next 2-3 years. As the market prepares for a new cycle, this report analyses the key factors driving industry fundamentals. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong developers and landlords.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+22)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Andrew Agita Buntoro
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Joyce Chu
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Sunny Chen
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, October 24, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...

BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
GFPT GFPT
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
1833 PING AN HEALTHCARE AND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
300244 DIAN DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hong Kong Property: Striking a new equilibrium. MARKET WEIGHT

Highlights  Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new sector equilibrium in next 2-3 years.  Catalysts: More rate cuts than expected, policy support and tourism recovery.  Risks: Fewer rate cuts, massive collateral liquidation by banks, more defaults. Analysis  Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new property market equilibrium. With geopolitical tensions being the new norm, Hong Kong is remerging as a key hub for capital and talent, as evidenced by the IPO market’s revival which has benefitted...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China and Hong Kong Property: Takeaways From Visit To Jinling Residenc...

Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+13)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Audrey Celia
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Lester Siew
  • Ming San Soong
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Property Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80. Company Update | Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$155.20/Target: HK$203.00) We expect solid 2QFY26 results, despite marg...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China and Hong Kong Property: Update Of Key Data And Trends During 202...

Golden Week new-home sales varied, with sales in Tier 1 cities growing 18.1% yoy on average, while sales in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities declined. In Hong Kong, second-hand transactions from 2024-25 projects, like SHKP's Cullinan Sky, achieved better capital gains, boosting investor sentiment. Tourism data was mixed: mainland tourist growth slowed, other regions’ visitors surged, and northbound travel stayed strong. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China and Hong Kong property/landlord sectors.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hong Kong Property: 2025 Policy Address: Positive On Residential Marke...

The 2025 Policy Address expands the new CIES to include HK$30m-50m worth of residential properties, moderates land supply targets and suspends the Kau Yi Chau project. The North Metropolis needs to accelerate development with innovative measures. Population growth and tourism remain the key policy focus, though local spending lacks direct support. Our pecking order of positive impact on each segment: residential>retail>office. SHKP and Hysan are our top picks, while NWD is downgraded to SELL due...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Kerry Properties (683 HK): 1H25: Mixed results; continues to strengthe...

Kerry Properties saw strong top-line growth but underlying profit declined 30% yoy due to a decline in GPM and rental income. DPS was unchanged yoy. The net gearing ratio of 38.3% is lower than guided. Expect further deleveraging and a strengthened portfolio, as well as pressure on rental and GPM in 2H25. Lower 2025/26 earnings by 18%/15% respectively. Raise NAV by 6% but expand target NAV discount. Lower target price to HK$21.40 and downgrade to HOLD. We remain positive for its medium-term IP e...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+17)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 21, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$87.25/Target: HK$88.00) Baidu’s 2Q25 earnings missed our expectations. Revenue dropped 4% yoy to Rmb32.7b, in line with consensus estimates. Gross margin dropped 8ppt yoy to 43.9%, below consensus expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb4.4b, plunging 41% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 14%. Non-GAAP net profit slumped 35% yoy to Rmb4.8b, beating consensus forecasts. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of ...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China & Hong Kong Property Strategy: CR Land’s acquisition of Shanghai...

The 30 Jul Politburo meeting emphasised strict controls on hidden government debt and high-quality/prudent urban renewal. CR Land’s acquisition of two prime residential projects in Shanghai (Rmb24.5b) highlights opportunities for SOE developers as LGFVs divest assets under stricter oversight. While Tier 1 and 2 cities show further sales weakness, Hong Kong is progressing with destocking, with potential changes to ease capital transfers for mainland talents. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China & Hong Kong Property & Property Management Strategy: Mainland ma...

Mainland property sales continued to weaken in July, which may weigh on the recovery of land sales. Potential policy support in 2H25 could be a positive catalyst. The Hong Kong property market showed signs of stabilisation: CCL index has turned positive ytd, while inventory of primary private residential units decreased 3.8% qoq in 2Q25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors, favouring CR Land in China for its resilient performance. We also highlight our other top pick, CR Mixc, for its attract...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+17)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Audrey Celia
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Philip Wong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Wei Xiang Ku
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, July 29, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property & Property Management Mainland market continues to weaken, while the Hong Kong residential market progresses with destocking; we highlight CR Land and CR Mixc as top picks. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Archi Indonesia (ARCI IJ/BUY/Rp770/Target: Rp1,280) Well-timed turnaround with true potential waiting to be unlocked. Results Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,750/Target: Rp6,000) 1H25: ...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China and Hong Kong Property Strategy: Weakening sales in China has ra...

For China’s property sector, Jun 25 preliminary data pointed to weakening sales, while the land market saw a clearer divergence. Weakened fundamentals may raise hopes of policy support in the July Politburo meeting. In Hong Kong, with the rental index in May 25 only 2.4% lower than the peak in Aug 19, we see signs of a stabilisation of property prices. However, a rebound in HIBOR may test the strength of sales recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for both sectors with a preference for China property...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+10)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Damon Shen
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Singapore Research Team

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, June 30, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy Property Weakening sales in China has raised hopes of policy support in July; rebound in HIBOR will test the strength of recovery in Hong Kong property sales. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp6,000) 5M25: Steady earnings amid NIM pressure. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas ...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hong Kong Property: Takeaways from channel check at The Southside.

We visited Deep Water Pavilia and LA MONTAGNE, both of which have seen encouraging sales in 2025, especially for entry-level units, which now yield 3.2-3.7%. The successful sale of Deep Water Pavilia is also attributable to a higher supply of entry-level units and conservative pricing on larger ones. We see positive destocking progress in Hong Kong, and if this trend continues, The Southside may be among the first areas to stabilise and recover price. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: SHKP.

Benyamin Mikael ... (+9)
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Damon Shen
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Philip Wong
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 18, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Property Takeaways from channel check at The Southside. INDONESIA Strategy Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Participants Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur Cautious but engaged. MALAYSIA Sector Construction Sector resists tensions from global uncerta...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China & Hong Kong Property, Hong Kong Landlord Strategy: Manageable pr...

In May 25, data from 28 cities and the top 100 developers’ sales point to a mom increase but yoy fall in new home sales. Secondary transactions in 12 cities continued to see a yoy hike. Homebuyers’ sentiments remain weak and divergent among cities, but better supply-demand dynamics lower the urge to introduce strong policies. For Hong Kong, the gentle yoy decline in retail sales and stronger tourist numbers growth are positive developments. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land, SHKP and L...

Damon Shen ... (+6)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Singapore Research Team

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, June 03, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China & Hong Kong Property Strategy: Channel check of Shanghai’s prima...

In May 25, new home and second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities remain relatively resilient. We visited four residential projects in Shanghai and observed: a) better sales of upgrading units, b) price stabilisation, and c) a challenging margin outlook. In Hong Kong, with the sharp decline of 1M HIBOR being a major positive development, RVD’s latest rental yields data points to improved return of smaller units. We expect higher yields into the school admission season. Maintain sector ratings an...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China And Hong Kong Property Strategy: Market watch around May holiday...

In Apr 25, the 28 mainland cities we monitored saw yoy decreases in new home sales, and total sales for Top 100 developers fell 16.9% yoy, worsening from a 10.6% yoy drop in Mar 25. As holiday delays data registration, we think the sales data for next two weeks will show the strength of sales in May 25. For the Hong Kong market, declining inventory and rising rental yields are positive signs. But consumption leakage remains a key concern. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.

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