The IPO revival proves Hong Kong is re-emerging as a key hub for talent and capital amid geopolitical risks, benefitting the property market. Hong Kong’s repositioning is expected to shape the property industry’s new equilibrium over the next 2-3 years. As the market prepares for a new cycle, this report analyses the key factors driving industry fundamentals. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong developers and landlords.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Highlights Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new sector equilibrium in next 2-3 years. Catalysts: More rate cuts than expected, policy support and tourism recovery. Risks: Fewer rate cuts, massive collateral liquidation by banks, more defaults. Analysis Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new property market equilibrium. With geopolitical tensions being the new norm, Hong Kong is remerging as a key hub for capital and talent, as evidenced by the IPO market’s revival which has benefitted...
Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80.
Greater China Sector Update | Property Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80. Company Update | Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$155.20/Target: HK$203.00) We expect solid 2QFY26 results, despite marg...
Golden Week new-home sales varied, with sales in Tier 1 cities growing 18.1% yoy on average, while sales in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities declined. In Hong Kong, second-hand transactions from 2024-25 projects, like SHKP's Cullinan Sky, achieved better capital gains, boosting investor sentiment. Tourism data was mixed: mainland tourist growth slowed, other regions’ visitors surged, and northbound travel stayed strong. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China and Hong Kong property/landlord sectors.
The 2025 Policy Address expands the new CIES to include HK$30m-50m worth of residential properties, moderates land supply targets and suspends the Kau Yi Chau project. The North Metropolis needs to accelerate development with innovative measures. Population growth and tourism remain the key policy focus, though local spending lacks direct support. Our pecking order of positive impact on each segment: residential>retail>office. SHKP and Hysan are our top picks, while NWD is downgraded to SELL due...
Kerry Properties saw strong top-line growth but underlying profit declined 30% yoy due to a decline in GPM and rental income. DPS was unchanged yoy. The net gearing ratio of 38.3% is lower than guided. Expect further deleveraging and a strengthened portfolio, as well as pressure on rental and GPM in 2H25. Lower 2025/26 earnings by 18%/15% respectively. Raise NAV by 6% but expand target NAV discount. Lower target price to HK$21.40 and downgrade to HOLD. We remain positive for its medium-term IP e...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$87.25/Target: HK$88.00) Baidu’s 2Q25 earnings missed our expectations. Revenue dropped 4% yoy to Rmb32.7b, in line with consensus estimates. Gross margin dropped 8ppt yoy to 43.9%, below consensus expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb4.4b, plunging 41% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 14%. Non-GAAP net profit slumped 35% yoy to Rmb4.8b, beating consensus forecasts. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of ...
The 30 Jul Politburo meeting emphasised strict controls on hidden government debt and high-quality/prudent urban renewal. CR Land’s acquisition of two prime residential projects in Shanghai (Rmb24.5b) highlights opportunities for SOE developers as LGFVs divest assets under stricter oversight. While Tier 1 and 2 cities show further sales weakness, Hong Kong is progressing with destocking, with potential changes to ease capital transfers for mainland talents. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors...
Mainland property sales continued to weaken in July, which may weigh on the recovery of land sales. Potential policy support in 2H25 could be a positive catalyst. The Hong Kong property market showed signs of stabilisation: CCL index has turned positive ytd, while inventory of primary private residential units decreased 3.8% qoq in 2Q25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors, favouring CR Land in China for its resilient performance. We also highlight our other top pick, CR Mixc, for its attract...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property & Property Management Mainland market continues to weaken, while the Hong Kong residential market progresses with destocking; we highlight CR Land and CR Mixc as top picks. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Archi Indonesia (ARCI IJ/BUY/Rp770/Target: Rp1,280) Well-timed turnaround with true potential waiting to be unlocked. Results Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,750/Target: Rp6,000) 1H25: ...
For China’s property sector, Jun 25 preliminary data pointed to weakening sales, while the land market saw a clearer divergence. Weakened fundamentals may raise hopes of policy support in the July Politburo meeting. In Hong Kong, with the rental index in May 25 only 2.4% lower than the peak in Aug 19, we see signs of a stabilisation of property prices. However, a rebound in HIBOR may test the strength of sales recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for both sectors with a preference for China property...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Property Weakening sales in China has raised hopes of policy support in July; rebound in HIBOR will test the strength of recovery in Hong Kong property sales. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp6,000) 5M25: Steady earnings amid NIM pressure. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas ...
We visited Deep Water Pavilia and LA MONTAGNE, both of which have seen encouraging sales in 2025, especially for entry-level units, which now yield 3.2-3.7%. The successful sale of Deep Water Pavilia is also attributable to a higher supply of entry-level units and conservative pricing on larger ones. We see positive destocking progress in Hong Kong, and if this trend continues, The Southside may be among the first areas to stabilise and recover price. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Takeaways from channel check at The Southside. INDONESIA Strategy Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Participants Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur Cautious but engaged. MALAYSIA Sector Construction Sector resists tensions from global uncerta...
In May 25, data from 28 cities and the top 100 developers’ sales point to a mom increase but yoy fall in new home sales. Secondary transactions in 12 cities continued to see a yoy hike. Homebuyers’ sentiments remain weak and divergent among cities, but better supply-demand dynamics lower the urge to introduce strong policies. For Hong Kong, the gentle yoy decline in retail sales and stronger tourist numbers growth are positive developments. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land, SHKP and L...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...
In May 25, new home and second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities remain relatively resilient. We visited four residential projects in Shanghai and observed: a) better sales of upgrading units, b) price stabilisation, and c) a challenging margin outlook. In Hong Kong, with the sharp decline of 1M HIBOR being a major positive development, RVD’s latest rental yields data points to improved return of smaller units. We expect higher yields into the school admission season. Maintain sector ratings an...
In Apr 25, the 28 mainland cities we monitored saw yoy decreases in new home sales, and total sales for Top 100 developers fell 16.9% yoy, worsening from a 10.6% yoy drop in Mar 25. As holiday delays data registration, we think the sales data for next two weeks will show the strength of sales in May 25. For the Hong Kong market, declining inventory and rising rental yields are positive signs. But consumption leakage remains a key concern. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
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