FY’26 outlook understated, with clear path for upgrades throughout the year – Following the FY’25 release, we reiterate our FY’26 adj. EBITDA estimate of €424mn, while also incorporating moderate upgrades to our mid-term forecasts, reflecting improved visibility on the Maryland addition, stronger outlook for cables projects driven by a higher-quality backlog and much-improved prospects for steel pipes. Our FY’26e adj. EBITDA estimate sits above mgmt guidance and c12% above consensus but just a ...
FY’26 outlook understated, with clear path for upgrades throughout the year – Following the FY’25 release, we reiterate our FY’26 adj. EBITDA estimate of €424mn, while also incorporating moderate upgrades to our mid-term forecasts, reflecting improved visibility on the Maryland addition, stronger outlook for cables projects driven by a higher-quality backlog and much-improved prospects for steel pipes. Our FY’26e adj. EBITDA estimate sits above mgmt guidance and c12% above consensus but just a ...
Earnings have bottomed; delivery now structurally de-risked… – Q4’25 marked a clear inflection point, with system NII stabilising q/q (+1.7% q/q) and confirming Q3’25 as the trough, as strong volume growth (>10% y/y, mainly corporate, with gradual retail recovery) and deposit repricing (c.30–40bps) offset rate normalisation. Fee generation (+12% y/y), alongside loan growth, remains the key positive driver, with strong momentum across lending commissions, asset management and bancassurance, suppo...
Earnings have bottomed; delivery now structurally de-risked… – Q4’25 marked a clear inflection point, with system NII stabilising q/q (+1.7% q/q) and confirming Q3’25 as the trough, as strong volume growth (>10% y/y, mainly corporate, with gradual retail recovery) and deposit repricing (c.30–40bps) offset rate normalisation. Fee generation (+12% y/y), alongside loan growth, remains the key positive driver, with strong momentum across lending commissions, asset management and bancassurance, suppo...
HEADLINES: • Metlen Energy & Metals: 2025 EBITDA drops 30% to EUR 753m, in line with warning NEUTRAL • Develia: 4Q25 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Synektik: solid delivery for the FY 2Q25 (CY 1Q26) order book NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: new publishing project announced NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 1Q26E preview – 6% yoy EBITDAaL growth expected (due on 22 April) • CEZ: Dukovany can operate until 2065-67 POSITIVE • DIGI Communications: new share issuance; new price target • NLB Group: takeover bi...
EME Equity Market – March 2026 All indices decline, with Greek ASE posting the steepest loss. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 8.0% mom in EUR terms and 10.8% mom in USD terms in March. The Greek ASE was the worst performer (-9.3% mom); followed by the Czech PX (-6.7% mom); the Hungarian BUX (-6.2% mom); the Turkish ISE30 (-5.1% mom); and the Polish WIG20 (-4.5% mom; all in EUR terms). The Romanian BET proved the most resilient, declining just 1.2% mom, in EUR terms.
Margin expansion remains key driver… – Sarantis’ medium-term guidance anchors the investment case, with management targeting EBITDA of €120m by 2028, implying sustained profitability growth from current levels (+10.5% CAGR). Underpinning this is a structurally improving product mix across both categories and geographies, with exports and premiumized product lines gaining traction. In our view, the combination of mix enhancement and operating leverage provides strong visibility on further margin ...
Margin expansion remains key driver… – Sarantis’ medium-term guidance anchors the investment case, with management targeting EBITDA of €120m by 2028, implying sustained profitability growth from current levels (+10.5% CAGR). Underpinning this is a structurally improving product mix across both categories and geographies, with exports and premiumized product lines gaining traction. In our view, the combination of mix enhancement and operating leverage provides strong visibility on further margin ...
A director at Piraeus Bank S.A bought 24,682 shares at 7.104EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
HEADLINES: • Ignitis Group: steady as she goes (stays BUY) • Zabka: beat in 4Q25; FY26E guidance of continued rapid expansion and stable profitability POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q25 results review – beat related to other operating income and income tax POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 4Q25E preview – 16% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 28 April) • LPP: 4Q25E results preview – 32% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 March) NEUTRAL • Doosan Skoda Power: 4Q25 above our expectations, backlog in line, materi...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: model update due to KAPPA and Exosens deals (stays BUY) • InPost: 4Q25 well below expectations due to the UK; only flat FY26E EBITDA guidance NEGATIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 4Q25 results – sales down 26% yoy, to PLN 6.68m NEGATIVE • cyber_Folks: final 4Q25 group results fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: management recommends DPS of PLN 0.15 from 2025 earnings NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: announces dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Trade Estates: FFO u...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bid or no bid? • Bank Handlowy: solid 4Q25, giving support to strong dividend yield expectations NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 4Q25 – a good end to a record year NEUTRAL • Tauron: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 7% below our expectations, following provisions in the Supply segment; adjusted EBITDA 11% above our forecast POSITIVE • Budimex: KIO orders rejection of company’s offer in Rail Baltica tender NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: PLN 40.6m provision to be created in the 4Q25E results NEG...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: solid 4Q25 numbers – small bottom-line beat, but underlying trends in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Allegro: 4Q25 above the consensus; FY26E guidance in line with our expectations POSITIVE • Orlen: submits new non-binding offer for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEUTRAL • CEZ: small 4Q25 beat on EBITDA, 2026E guidance below the consensus NEGATIVE • Colt CZ Group: planning dual AEX listing and a capital increase POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: two exploration projects in Bulgaria now NEUT...
HEADLINES: • BIM: 4Q25 results – strong beat POSITIVE • Enea: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 25% below expectations on Supply one-offs; adjusted EBITDA 2% below forecast NEUTRAL • Enea / Tauron: URE orders additional payments to the Price Difference Payment Fund NEUTRAL • PGE: completes acquisition of 350 MW Bałtyk II offshore wind project from RWE NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: PLN 10.7m impairment losses to spoil otherwise strong quarter (due on 23 March) NEGATIVE • Footshop: preliminary 4Q25 resul...
EME Equity Market – February 2026 Muted performance across the region, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in February. The Turkish ISE was the top performer, adding 5.4% mom in EUR terms; while the Polish WIG and the Romanian BET improved slightly (+0.9% and +0.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the worst performers (-4.9%, and -3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms), w...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: 4Q25 results – net profit beats expectations • PZU: 4Q25 results – in line with expectations • PGE: to book a PLN 0.7bn provision NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: releases Reigns: The Witcher, card-swiping game NEUTRAL • CTP: 4Q25 – both FFO and guidance trail our and the consensus estimates slightly NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: 4Q25 results review – EBITDA up 11% yoy, in line with the consensus; conservative 2026E guidance NEUTRAL • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: 4Q25E preview (due out ...
Driven by a doubling of capacity in its submarine cable plant in Greece, its entry into the HVDC cable market, and the opening of its first US cable plant, we expect Cenergy to grow its adjusted group EBITDA in the next three years by 38% to € 488m in 2028e, which also is the key factor why we initiate coverage on Cenergy (listing in Brussels & Athens) with an Outperform.
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