reports
- Tian Hou
- Tian Hou
- Tian Hou
BEKE: Positive On BEKE’s 2024 Outlook and 2Q24 Performance As China’s ...
We are positive on BEKE’s 2024 outlook supported by the stimulating policies at both State and local levels. The overall housing sector has begun to stabilize. We are also positive about the company’s 2Q24 performance as our data indicates that China's housing market has shown signs of modest recovery, primarily driven by the secondary market. While secondary home sales have increased since early 2024, new home sales have declined at a slower pace. Once the prices stabilize, we are expecting mor...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Positive Outlook Due To BABA’s Strategic Changes; Positive FY1Q2...
We maintain a positive outlook on BABA's prospects as its domestic e-commerce division is undergoing strategic transformations. We anticipate these changes will significantly boost revenue growth in the near term. Notably, Alibaba is eliminating annual merchant fees starting in September 2024, shifting to a 0.6% commission on gross merchandise value (GMV).
- Tian Hou
PDD: Temu Growth Driving Better 2Q24E Despite Being Impacted By Duty F...
We are positive about PDD’s performance in 2Q24 driven by Temu’s high growth. TEMU’s contribution continues to be significant, as it not only contributes to topline growth but also to the margins. We estimate TEMU’s GMV to grow 10.7% Q/Q in 2Q24, vs. 18.5% Q/Q in 1Q24 due to the tighter clearance control from the US Customs and Border Protection. As a result of the tighter control, more than 10 customs clearance companies were shut down due to their China business, which impacted the speed of TE...
- Tian Hou
BZ: Positive On 2Q24 Performance Driven By Growth In Services Sector
We are positive about BZ’s performance in 2Q24. The total paid job listings on BZ’s platform are likely to grow 2.5% Y/Y in 2Q24E. The Services sector, as 14% of total job listings, grew 21.3% Y/Y. The job listings of other smaller listing contributing sectors - Agriculture, Transportation & Logistics, and Auto - are likely to grow 38.9% Y/Y, 25.8% Y/Y, and 23.1% Y/Y, respectively.
- Tian Hou
BZ: Positive On 1Q24 Performance, Supported By Listings Growth In Serv...
We are positive about BZ’s performance in 1Q24. Due to the natural recovery of China’s underlying domestic economy and State economic stimulus, the job market has shown some improvements since 4Q23. The number of total paid job listings on the platform is likely to be up 6.7% Y/Y in 1Q24. As the policy front is becoming more pro-business, we believe BZ is likely to benefit as a result.
- Tian Hou
PDD: Positive On 1Q24 Performance Driven By Rapid Growth From Temu
We are positive about PDD’s performance in 1Q24 driven by Temu. TEMU’s contribution continues to be significant, as it not only contributes to topline growth, but also to the margins. We estimate that TEMU likely contributes approximately 30% of GMV to PDD’s revenue. We estimate GMV Q/Q growth to be ~18.5% in 1Q24, with approximately two-thirds of GMV coming from the US market.
- Tian Hou
BIDU: Positive On Long-Term Outlook; Monetization In AI To Drive Futur...
BIDU will report 1Q24 results on May 16th before the markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are neutral on BIDU’s performance in 1Q24, and its advertising business is in line with China's economy. We believe China’s economy has reached a bottom and should begin its slow recovery soon. While advertising may not see meaningful improvements right away, we do expect gradual improvement as the year progresses. We are positive about BIDU’s long-term outlook, as the company continues to invest...
- Tian Hou
ZTO: Positive On 1Q24 Performance And 2024 Outlook As e-Commerce Is Co...
May 13, 2024 ZTO will report 1Q24 results on May 15th after the market closes followed by an 8:30pm ET conference call. We are positive about its 1Q24 performance. ZTO continues to maintain its high market share in terms of parcel delivery. With its high profit margin, ZTO has the strongest competitive advantage among its peers. ZTO’s business is correlated with China’s e-commerce industry; we believe that China’s economy has reached a bottom, and that e-commerce is reboundin...
- Tian Hou
ATHM: Positive On 1Q24 Performance Due To Improvement In The Auto Mark...
ATHM will report 1Q24 results on May 8th before the markets open with an 8 am ET conference call. We are positive about ATHM’s 1Q24 performance. The auto market in China continues to improve driven by EV sales. The market share of EV cars has already reached 31.1% in China. With aggressive competition in the EV area, ATHM has become one of the most wanted platforms for market and customer acquisition. As China is adopting auto trade-in measures, we believe auto sales is likely to go up further t...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Positive On Longer-Term Outlook As China’s Economy Is Showing Si...
BABA will report FY4Q24 results on May 14th before the markets open with a 7:30am ET conference call. We believe BABA’s FY4Q24E performance is likely to be in line, but we are positive about the longer-term outlook. BABA is adopting a new strategy focusing on user acquisitions for each business unit, including e-commerce business, cloud business, cross-border commerce, and local services. The company started to use low prices and subsidies. As such, while we expect BABA’s business to resume grow...
- Tian Hou
JD: China’s Economy May Have Bottomed As The Property Market Is Starti...
JD will report 1Q24 results on May 16th before the US markets open with an 8am ET conference call. Due to multiple stimulating measures from the government, particularly the relaxation of the limitation for top-tier city housing purchases, we expect China’s economy to resume better growth soon. As such, JD is likely to benefit from that.
- Tian Hou
ZTO: Positive On 4Q23 Performance And 2024 Outlook As China’s Economy ...
ZTO will report 4Q23 results on March 19th after the market closes followed by a 7:30pm ET conference call. We are positive about its 4Q23 performance. While ZTO’s business is highly correlated with China's e-commerce business, which ZTO always outpaces, the company is also maintaining its high market share. We are also positive about ZTO’s long-term position as there has been new e-commerce players in China’s market, which presents increasing demand for logistics services. In addition, 2023 is ...
- Tian Hou
PDD: Positive On 4Q23 Performance Driven By Growth From Temu
We are positive about PDD’s performance in 4Q23 driven by Temu. Temu’s business model is agency business, like that of VipShop’s (VIPS, $17.22, Not Rated) business model. Under such a model, we estimate that 30% of Temu’s GMV becomes its international revenue. Temu GMV has been growing and continues to grow rapidly. We estimate the Q/Q growth to be around 40% in 4Q23 with approximately two-thirds of GMV coming from the US market. Its recent expansion in Japan and Korea is also ramping up rapidly...
- Tian Hou
BEKE Positive On BEKE’s 4Q23 Earnings, But China’s Property Market Rem...
BEKE will report 4Q23 results on March 14th before the markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are positive on the company’s 4Q23 earnings but neutral on 1Q24 and its long-term outlook. Based on our data and assumptions, BEKE revenue is likely to increase 13.9% Y/Y to RMB19.07B in 4Q23E, slightly better than consensus at RMB18.8B. However, 1Q24 consensus revenue seems to be aggressive.
- Tian Hou
WB: Economic Recovery In China In 2024 Is Likely to Benefit WB; Steady...
WB will report 4Q23 results on March 14th before the markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are neutral on WB’s 4Q23 revenue performance, but the margin is likely to be better as spending is not aggressive. China's economy in 2023 showed unexpected slow growth, which is likely to be reflected in WB’s 4Q23 earnings. However, it also provides a low comparison base for 2024. WB is likely to benefit from such a situation. China's economy has its resilience, and it is on its way to gradual r...
- Tian Hou
NTES: Expect Strong 4Q23 Performance Driven By New And Existing Games ...
NTES will report 4Q23 results on February 29th before the markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are positive on NTES’s 4Q23 performance. The positive performance, we believe, is driven by the better performance from both domestic and international markets. Internationally, over the last two years, NTES has developed 22 overseas game studios. We expect NTES to have more overseas studios set up in 2024. Domestically, we believe existing PC games contributed more to the bottom line in 4Q23...
- Tian Hou
BIDU: Investments In AI and AI Cloud To Fuel Future Growth; Positive O...
We are positive about BIDU’s AI performance in 4Q23, and its advertising business is in line with China's economy. China’s economy did not show better growth in 2023 after the government ceased all Covid restrictions. While there were some improvements in the economy in 4Q23, the recovery was still below expectations. As a result, advertising growth may not grow as well as expected in 4Q23. However, BIDU continues to invest in AI with Ernie 4.0, which was launched in October 2023. We are positiv...
- Tian Hou
BABA: Adjusting To Cope With Weaker Business Environment; Recovering A...
BABA will report FY3Q24 results on February 7th before the markets open with a 7:30am ET conference call. We believe BABA’s FY3Q24E performance is likely to be in line, but we are positive for the 2024 outlook. While China's economy in 2023 showed unexpected slow growth, it also provided a low base for 2024. China's economy has its resilience, and it is gradually on its way to recovery. As the e-commerce sector is representative of China's economy, BABA’s performance also showed such recovery. S...
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