Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): FY24 results in line. Additional reserves expected in early 2Q25
• FY24 production, YE24 reserves and YE24 net cash had been reported previously. The FY25 guidance has been re-iterated.• Production in March to date at Manora was 2.9 mbbl/d.
• FID for the Wassana redevelopment is still anticipated in early 2Q25, with first oil expected in early-2027. A significant portion of the 10.6 mmbbl low-risk contingent resources at Wassana will be converted into 2P reserves upon FID.
• 10 development and appraisal wells are currently planned for the Jasmine field in 2025 and one exploration well at the Ratree prospect. The Ratree prospect, with prospective resources of 3.4-41.9 mmbbl (19.4 mmbbl mid case), is expected to be drilled around mid-2025. In a success case, this could be a new development with its own infrastructure. Our unrisked NAV is C$2.42 per share.
• We re-iterate our target price of C$13 per share.
Turkey
While we are not attributing any value to Valeura’s assets in the Thrace Basin in Turkey, we note that Continental Resources has signed a JV deal with Türkiye Petroleum and TransAtlantic Petroleum to explore tight rocks in the Diyarbakir and Thrace Basins.
Valuation
Our Core NAV and ReNAV are C$10.37/sh and C$12.78/sh, respectively. The exploration upside valuation only includes Ratree's prospective resources. We forecast YE26 net cash of US$534 mm at US$70/bbl, excluding the redevelopment of Wassana.
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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