Heineken Preview: soft 3Q release expected
We lowered our forecasts for 3Q25 and the remainder of the year after signals of weak recent trading in a number of markets. Whilst Heineken did stick to its FY25 guidance range of 4-8% organic operating profit (beia) growth at the time of the 1H25 results release, we now expect FY25 organic operating profit (beia) growth to slightly fall short of that range at +3.6%. We still appreciate Heineken for the organic earnings growth potential in coming years (we expect c. 6% organic operating profit beia CAGR over 2025-2027), supported by ongoing cost savings initiatives and payback from gradually increasing marketing spend, but acknowledge that the bumpier volume evolution makes the investment case a bit less appealing. We look forward to the upcoming CMD and maintain our Accumulate rating, albeit with a target price lowered from € 100 to € 85.Heineken is an international brewer and engaged in the production and distribution of beer brands in 178 countries. Co. is committed to the marketing and consumption of its more than 250 international premium, regional, local and specialty beers and ciders. These include Heineken®, Amstel, Anchor, Biere Larue, Bintang, Birra Moretti, Cruzcampo, Desperados, Dos Equis, Foster's, Newcastle Brown Ale, Ochota, Primus, Sagres, Sol, Star, Strongbow, Tecate, Tiger and Zywiec. In addition, Co. is the cider maker with brands such as Strongbow® and Bulmer's®. Some of its wholesalers also distribute wine, spirits and soft drinks.
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