Home Invest Belgium FY25: Strong Underlying Performance Overshadowed by UCL Uncertainty

Home Invest reports results in line with our expectations at €1,21 EPRA EPS. It guides €1,23 EPRA EPS in FY26, slightly ahead of our expectation of € 1,20. At 1H25 results, Home Invest confirmed our thesis that the building right in Louvain-La-Neuve will not get renewed. As of the announcement Home Invest started to underperform (-7,1%) the EPRA index (+8,6%). The UCL has time until June 2026 to respond. This headwind will keep EPRA EPS growth muted, despite the stellar operational results: 98,2% occupancy, +4,0% like-for-like rental growth of which 140 bps rent reversion and +33,3m fair value uplift thanks to ERV increases. In our model the 8,6% annualised remuneration on the € 50,0m City Forward downpayment, combined with operational outperformance results in 3,5% EPRA EPS growth in FY26. However in FY27, we expect a negative impact of -2,2% due to the UCL case. The strong underlying performance is currently overshadowed by the UCL uncertainty. Therefore we reiterate our HOLD recommendation.