Nextensa Refinancing risks mitigated, cut to hold on SP performance

Nextensa announced the €35.95m disposal of its Gewerbepark Stadlau retail park in Vienna. Since the Bel Tower/Proximus announcement in early 2025, the company has accelerated its disposal program to address upcoming debt maturities (average term 2.6y) and ongoing capex commitments. Refinancing risks now appear largely mitigated. We expect FY25 results to come in ahead of our previous estimates, primarily driven by the strong share price performance of the nowdivested Retail Estates stake. On a recurring basis, however, we anticipate a softer underlying outcome. In FY26, sales are set to decline as Parklane Phase 2 was fully delivered by yearend 2025, while the Lakeside permit (1Q26 exp.) and its commercialization was further delayed. This delay increased cashflow timing uncertainty and drove our TP reduction from €54.0 to €50.0. While we remain positive on the Bel Tower project and continue to support Nextensa's strategic repositioning towards a more pureplay developer, value creation has shifted further into the outer years. Following the recent share price performance, upside versus our TP has become limited relative to the developmentrelated risks. We therefore lower our recommendation from Accumulate to Hold.