Vopak Maersk not to invest in Vopak's brownfield in the port of Antwerp

Last Friday evening, Belgian newspaper De Tijd reported that Vioneo has halted plans for a €1.5bn green plastics plant in the Port of Antwerp. The project will instead be developed in China. Vioneo focuses on new technology to produce plastics without fossil feedstocks. The Maersk subsidiary had selected Antwerp in 2024 for its first large scale facility, designed to produce 300,000 tonnes of “green plastic” annually. The Vioneo plant was planned for the former Gunvor refinery site, a brownfield area that Vopak is transforming into a green energy hub. The head of Vopak's Belgian operations was quoted in the article stating other developments remain in the pipeline, particularly in renewable energy and hydrogen. Vopak maintains a highly disciplined approach to investments in new energies. Our rating and target price do not include any value for projects that have not yet reached FID, so this news has no impact on our valuation. Vopak remains on our DTPL list largely amongst other based on promising greenfield gas terminal projects with guaranteed offtake. Buy and €50 TP reiterated.

Our take: In December, shipping company CMB.TECH had already announced investments in Chinese ammonia terminals & ventures, citing the availability of competitively priced green molecules in China as one of the key drivers. So once more it becomes clear that China will become a dominant force in the green transition at the expense of Europe. Our rating and target price do not include any value for projects that have not yet reached FID, so this news has no impact on our valuation. Moreover, the attractiveness of the investment case of Vopak is largely build on exciting greenfield gas terminal projects with guaranteed offtake.
Investment case: Vopak remains the leading independent open-access liquid bulk terminal operator, distinguished by its globally diversified strategic footprint, broad range of terminal types, extensive product-handling capabilities, and strong partnerships. Its business model offers high visibility and is largely insulated from volatility in underlying commodities. Demand for Vopak's services continues to benefit from structural growth trends, while management has successfully instilled a disciplined focus on free cash flow generation across the organization. In 2025, Vopak delivered on its strategic objectives, completed the successful IPO of its Indian joint venture AVTL and maintained guidance amidst adverse FX movements and tariff headwinds. Despite these achievements, the share price has yet to reflect the company's progress. Excluding growth investments, Vopak trades at normalized FCF yields close to 10%. Adjusting for the €2.5bn valuation of AVTL, the stock is valued at approximately 5.5x EBITDA25E and 5x EBITDA26E. For context, Vopak has historically divested underperforming assets at around 10x EBITDA. Current trading multiples appear particularly compelling given the expected ~10% proportional EBITDA uplift in 2027, driven by large-scale greenfield gas terminal projects coming online. This growth is secured through firm offtake agreements rather than cyclical macro recovery assumptions. As investor focus shifts toward this trajectory in 2026, a re-rating looks increasingly probable.