Syensqo Model reset after disappointing FY26 outlook, downgrade to Accumulate

Syensqo negatively surprised the market last week with weaker than expected 4Q results and with a FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of c. € 1.1bn, which was c. 15% below our and consensus forecasts and represents a c. 7% drop vs 2025 actuals. While part of the earnings pressure in recent years relates to a more difficult macro-economic environment, a number of businesses has seen a more intense competition and also pricing pressure, including in the recently divested Oil & Gas, Aroma Performance and parts of the Specialty Polymers and Novecare portfolio. Syensqo's new CEO Mike Radossich commented he will focus oa on portfolio optimization and value creation. We believe it will take some time to rebuild confidence after the FY26 outlook disappointment. Reflecting the lowered forecasts and also lower confidence, we revise our target price from € 90 to € 70, while lowering our rating from Buy to Accumulate.