UCB TRx noise aside, fundamentals remain strong
UCB's Bimzelx is well-positioned with strong 3-year data in HS and competitive performance across PsO, PsA, and axSpA, supporting our peak sales estimate of €5.9b by 2030. Despite premium forward P/E multiples, UCB's projected EPS CAGR (2025–2029), being >3x that of peers, means UCB continues to be an attractive name to own. Earlier in the pipeline, our deep dive into the atopic dermatitis (AD) landscape shows that phase 2a data for galovokimig is promising, with plans to advance to phase 2b. Acknowledging recent Bimzelx TRx trends show limited growth from the usual summer slowdown, we believe this is too short a period to read into as TRx trends can be lumpy– we'd feel differently if growth remains flat throughout the coming month. We update our model, which brings us to a new TP of €270 (from €249), maintaining an ACCUMULATE rating.UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.
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