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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Walmart 3Q24/25 results. IBA: Rhodotron contract to equip a sterilization facility in Mexico. NEPI Rockcastle: Sound operational momentum. UCB: Final approval for Bimzelx in the United States

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+5)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB FIRST LOOK: FDA gives 5/5 with Bimzelx' new approval in HS

UCB has received a 5th nod for Bimzelx as hidradenitis suppurativa joins the fray of approved indications. We see an important role for Bimzelx in this emerging disease space with clear potential to become standard of care over time given its clear outperformance over Novartis' Cosentyx in the clinic. We reiterate our € 173 TP and Accumulate rating.

Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB FIRST LOOK: First takes on dapimap's Ph3 results in SLE

UCB shared first insights into the Phase 3 data on dapimap in SLE, which appear generally favourable with a 14.6% BICLA benefit after 48 weeks vs. SoC. The data also shows a steroid tapering effect and reduction in flares, while suggesting possible outperformance vs. current market leader Benlysta (GSK). Dapimap is co-developed with Biogen and will be continued in a second Ph3 study. We reiterate our € 173 TP and Accumulate rating.

Guy Sips ... (+4)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Vranken
David Vagman ... (+3)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA
  • Maxime Stranart

UCB/The gift that keeps on giving/BUY

We reiterate our BUY rating on UCB and increase our target price from €180 to €212. After almost a year on the ING Benelux Favourites List, we believe it is an opportune time to remove UCB as we view our upside as more risky than in the past as it is increasingly weighted towards UCB's development pipeline. Nonetheless, we remain confident in UCB's equity story, driven by INGF €6bn peak sales for Bimzelx, a continued strong performance of secondary growth engines Evenity and Rystiggo, as well as...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adecco: 3Q24 miss; stabilising trends in 3Q24 and into 4Q24; accelerating cost savings. B&S Group: 3Q24 preview - liquor bottoming into 4Q24? Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Almost the real thing. D'Ieteren: Belgian October car registrations down 5.5%, VW down 11%. Kinepolis: Oct US/Canada box office at 59% of pre Covid level, France recovery to 78%. Recticel: 3Q24 compares well with Kingspan. Renewi: 1H25 preview - battling cost inflation with self help. Syensqo: Slight beat on 3Q...

Jacob Mekhael ... (+3)
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Jacob Mekhael
  • Jacob Mekhael

UCB Bepranemab shows mixed results in Alzheimer's phase 2a

UCB presented results from the phase 2a (TOGETHER) study of bepranemab (antibody targeting the mid-region of tau) in people living with prodromal to mild Alzheimer's disease (AD) during a late-breaker at the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) conference. The results showed a miss on the primary endpoint, but some signal on secondary endpoints and in sub-group analysis. With the candidate back with UCB from Genentech, the company is evaluating next steps in the development program. We...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: 3Q24 preview - no signs of recovery expected. AB InBev: All to play for in the final quarter. Arcadis: A mixed bag. Ayvens: Struggling to get out of neutral. dsm-firmenich: Taking your vitamins is healthy. D'Ieteren: Belron equity at €23.5bn, EV €32.2bn in minority shareholder transaction. Euronext: 3Q24 and CMD Preview. Flow Traders: Bumper harvest. Heijmans: 3Q24 as expected, keeps FY outlook in place. Proximus: Key politician pushing for major governance shake up. ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Preview 3Q24 Econocom: 3Q24 impressive sales of 6%, driven by leasing Greenyard: No Fruit Farm? PostNL: Preview 3Q24F; consensus released; (implied) warning? Randstad: 3Q24 beats 2% on lower opex; outlook 4Q24 c.3/4% below consensus; better than expected; nice strategic and accretive acquisition. UCB: Regains all global rights to Bepranemab. Var Energi: Pressure on costs continues. Events Calendar

Thibault Leneeuw ... (+3)
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Lewi
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ASM International: Promising next generation SiC Epi system. Exor: Read-across for Stellantis' profit warning. Montea: FBI recognition for 2023. OCI: Sale of Clean Ammonia to Woodside closed. UCB: Positive KOL feedback in Hidradenitis Suppurativa

Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB Highlighting the unmet needs in HS

In a capital markets call yesterday, UCB provided more insight into the HS data with two KOLs. The presenters emphasized the importance of Bimzelx' clinical remission rates and reduction in draining tunnels. We raise our peak sales estimate for HS to € 1.1bn, and increase our TP from € 168 to € 173.

Jacob Mekhael ... (+3)
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
David Vagman ... (+17)
  • David Vagman
  • CFA
  • Francesca Ferragina
  • Hans D’Haese
  • Jason Kalamboussis
  • Javier Campos Unda
  • Marc Hesselink
  • CFA
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA
  • Maxime Stranart
  • Quirijn Mulder
  • Reg Watson
  • CFA
  • Stijn Demeester
  • Thymen Rundberg
  • Tijs Hollestelle

ING Benelux Favourites/ASM, ASR, D'Ieteren, EVS, Fugro, Randstad, SBM ...

We refresh our ING Benelux Favourites list. We still apply a fundamental bottom up approach in which we select stocks that provide the best (relative) upside within our Benelux coverage universe and these stocks need clear catalysts. Besides this, we screen our ING Benelux coverage universe on some key investment themes that are topical and which could affect earnings potential and thus a stock's share price performance: (1) interest rate/refinancing opportunity in a lower rates environment; (2)...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+5)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
Thomas Vranken
  • Thomas Vranken

UCB FIRST LOOK: Bimzelx deepens responses in HS over two years

UCB announced the first 2-year follow-up data with Bimzelx in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). The data appears largely favourable in our view, with deepening responses across the various HiSCR endpoints. We believe Bimzelx is set to become the new standard of care in HS (pending FDA approval), and reiterate our €168 TP and Accumulate rating.

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