The Euro Area Growth in Q3 Didn't Sink Despite the Fog

In Q3 2025, GDP growth increased by 0.2% QoQ , slightly more than in Q2 (+0.1% QoQ). Year-on-year, GDP growth stands at 1.3%, down from 1.5% in Q2. The major member states have either recorded stability (Italy, Germany) or growth (France, Spain). Notably, Portugal saw a further acceleration to 0.8% QoQ, up from 0.7% in Q2, achieving the highest quarterly growth rate among the figures released today ( chart 1 ) . With only partial details available for components in Spain and France, along with some comments from national statistical offices in Germany and Italy, certain similarities emerge. From the partial information available, it appears that investment in capital goods has been a source of growth in the main Eurozone countries. Conversely, the evolution of exports seems to have been heterogeneous, with strong growth in France, a decline in Spain, and in Germany as well. Thus, it appears that domestic demand contributed the most to growth in the quarter, while net exports had a negative contribution in most countries . By the end of the year and into the early months of 2026, we believe that the easing of uncertainty due to the trade war, with agreements signed in recent weeks, is likely to restore confidence among various stakeholders. Domestically, with the resilience of labour markets, household confidence could improve, leading to an increase in consumption. Similarly, businesses, in a clearer environment with improving financing conditions, could maintain their investment spending. Furthermore, the continued implementation of European funds will continue to positively impact the growth of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). We therefore expect a gradual acceleration of growth between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 , as confirmed by our Nowcasting model ( chart 2 ) . Consequently, we maintain our GDP growth forecasts at 1.3% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026 .