Novo - Finding the Floor (BUY, TP DKK800 [1150], 11pgs)
The Novo Obesity bubble has well and truly burst, with every investor we spoke to asking about the worst case obesity scenario & what that means in terms of valuation. Despite Cagrisema having shown the best weight loss profile to date, we now assume the worst case estimates for Novo’s obesity franchise, with Novo only taking ~25% mkt share & treating only 7m US patients in 2030. The 2030 EBIT d/grade if cons. falls to our Cagri estimate would be just 8%, but we are fully cognisant of where sentiment is. Valuation is now the key S-T question in the absence of more data. We believe the sema patent expiry should be ignored for numerous reasons. BUY.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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