New Street Research - Shopify Inc. (SHOP) (SHOP) Shopify (SHOP, Neutral, $105 target) GMV/revenue acceleration and AI enthusiasm carry the day

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New Street Research

Dan Salmon

EUR 8632.00 For Business Accounts Only

Shopify (SHOP, Neutral, $105 target) GMV/revenue acceleration and AI enthusiasm carry the day

In this first take following this morning’s results we focus on:
1. 1st stock upside driver is 3Q25 revenue guidance, the second 2nd leg is AI enthusiasm
2. GMV and revenue strength are the star of today’s show
3. Latest AI innovations target a future of agentic commerce
4. Gross profit lags revenue as absolute dollar growth remains the focus
5. FCF margin outlook unchanged as reinvestment remains the focus

07/08/2025 1 EN

Underlying

Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

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Analysts

Dan Salmon

Other Reports on these Companies

New Street Research

Shopify (SHOP, Neutral, $90 target) Expect FCF consensus to ease back to reality (aka guidance)

What’s New: In this first take we focus on: 1. 2QTD GMV trends solid. Key question: how much of it is being pulled forward? 2. 2Q gross margin guidance should bring FCF margin consensus back to reality 3. Enterprise pipeline continues to show strength

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May 8, 2025 May 8, 2025 1 EN

New Street Research

Shopify (Neutral, raising target to $120 from $115) Slightly raising estimates on beat and guide, target follows

We raise our price target to $120 from $115 on slightly higher estimates following the 4Q beat. Investment Thesis: We remain Neutral rated and expect the shares to be range-bound in the near-term. We continue to expect shares to be driven largely by GMV growth relative to expectations in 2025. Positive catalysts could include increased Enterprise contribution in 2025, while downside catalysts could include any consumer-driven macro weakness in the SMB base.

EUR 8632.00

February 12, 2025 February 12, 2025 1 EN

TDS remains undervalued

At the beginning of this year, we laid out our valuation for USM and TDS which showed that there was substantial upside to both stocks. Yesterday, we published an update on USM. We follow it up with this short note where we show that the market continues to undervalue TDS and that there is still significant upside to the TDS equity.

4h / 59m 4h / 59m 1 EN

Pierre FerraguÊ

Pierre FerraguÊ

Arista 2Q25: 2025 growth guide raised to mid-20%, in line with our mid-term forecast. Buy, $154 TP.

Arista reported 2Q25 yesterday.

9h / 47m 9h / 47m 1 EN

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Shopify (SHOP, Neutral, $105 target) GMV/revenue acceleration and AI enthusiasm carry the day

Shopify (SHOP, Neutral, $90 target) Expect FCF consensus to ease back to reality (aka guidance)

Shopify (Neutral, raising target to $120 from $115) Slightly raising estimates on beat and guide, target follows

TDS remains undervalued

Arista 2Q25: 2025 growth guide raised to mid-20%, in line with our mid-term forecast. Buy, $154 TP.

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