EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 15 NOVEMBER + 3Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, CAF, CAIXABANK, COLONIAL, MERLIN.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

ECB’s target nearly met
The Euro STOXX 50 had its best day since late September, while the ECB’s meeting minutes suggested the 2% inflation target will be met earlier than expected, thus cementing the rate cut for December. Within the STOXX 600, all the sectors closed in green numbers, led by Technology and Telecoms, with defensive sectors like Pharma and Household Goods closing practically flat. On the macro side, in Spain inflation confirmed the 1.8% preliminary data in October, whereas the corte figure rose one tenth of a percent to 2.5%, in line with expectations. In the euro zone, the final 3Q’24 GDP reading confirmed a +0.4% QoQ rise, while employment grew +0.2%. The ECB minutes warned that the low growth in Europe is not a matter of interest rates. In the US, weekly jobless claims fell slightly more than expected (still at very low levels), and October’s production prices rose in line with expectations. J. Powell insisted there is no hurry for the Fed to cut interest rates. In China, retail sales recovered more than expected in October but industrial output and investments in fixed assets grew below expectations. Meanwhile, the annual slowdown pace of home prices aggravated in October. Separately, the International Energy Agency raised crude oil demand for 2024 slightly, but warned there is still a risk of oversupply in 2025 even if OPEC maintains the current cuts. In US business results, Walt Disney beat expectations.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with corrections of as much as -0.5% although with the good performance of consumer companies with exposure to China. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.42% (the S&P 500 ended down -0.37% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.84%, Japan’s Nikkei +0.53%).
Today in the UK we will learn industrial output and the final 3Q’24 GDP figure and in the US November’s Empire index and October’s import prices, retail sales and industrial output.



COMPANY NEWS

ACCIONA/ACCIONA ENERGÍA. 3Q’24Trading Statement, with Outlook reiterated. OVERWEIGHT
In its trading statement the company kept the group’s EBITDA targets, cutting CAPEX’24 in energy (without lowering installed MW), which “softens” the leverage pressure in the division. The rest of headings were very much in line with the trend seen in the 1H’24, and even though this should not result in a significant market reaction we cannot rule out the possibility of a rally given the poor share price performance of both companies in the past month (-5% and -6% in absolute terms vs. -3% IBEX) and in 2024 (ANE -32% and ANA -9% in absolute terms vs. +13% IBEX).

CAF. Results below expectations due to specific elements that have already been “resolved”. Positive comments on 4Q’24. OVERWEIGHT.
The 9M’24 sales came in below expectations (+6.7% vs. +10.5% BS(e) and +11.0% consensus), hit by a regulatory effect and Solaris’s impossibility of making deliveries due to adverse weather, as well as a difficult comparison in the Rolling Stock business, both matters resolved for 4Q’24. With this in mind, 9M’24 EBIT was even lower (+7.0% vs. +18.9% BS(e) and +18.8% consensus), with a 4.7% margin (vs. 4.7% in 9M’23) vs. expansion expected (+30bps BS(e)), due especially to the effect from Solaris. The company has disclosed very positive figures in October’24 and expects a strong 4Q’24, and thus it reiterates its 2024 targets. The reception on the market was very negative (-6% in absolute terms vs. +1.3% IBEX), and despite the doubts this release could generate, the messages conveyed are quite positive, and we expect confidence in the stock to return in the annual results.

COLONIAL. Solid results that beat expectations.
COL released a solid set of results that also beat our estimates, thanks both to higher revenues and lower operating and financial costs. Rental revenues reached € 102 M (+6% vs. +5% BS(e)), recurring EPS € 0.09 (+16% vs. +4% BS(e)). The company has slightly raised its EPS’24 guidance and estimates a potential negative impact from the elimination of the REIT tax regime on IFRS EPS of -1% to -2%, which is lower than expected. We understand that the share price could perform well following the recent drops (-11% over the past month). OVERWEIGHT.

MERLIN. Results beating expectations in margins. OVERWEIGHT.
Gross total rents grew +4.8% and LfL rents +2.7% thanks to the indexation, occupancy and rising prices in renovations. FFO improved +7% (+3% BS(e), -11% per share following the capital increase) thanks to lower operating and net financial costs. After announcing yesterday that the impact on EPS from a potential elimination of the REIT tax regime would be “limited”, we understand the share price should continue to recover part of what it has lost over the past month (-11.5%, -4% vs. EPRA index, -9% vs. IBEX 35). OVERWEIGHT.