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IBERIAN DAILY 16 JANUARY + 4Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAF, INDRA, NATURGY, TELEFÓNICA, UNICAJA.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Euro STOXX 50 consolidates 6,000 points
It was another session of gains in Europe, where the Dutch AEX stood out thanks to the boost from ASML (+6%). Meanwhile, the STOXX 600 was highly dispersed, where the best-performing sectors like Technology and Financial Services rose more than +2.0%, whereas Consumer Goods and Pharma ended with losses of around -1.0%. On the macro side, in Spain December’s final inflation confirmed the preliminary 2.9% YoY and the core figure remained at the previous 2.6%. The Govt. plans to create a sovereign fund with the capacity to invest up to € 150 Bn. In the euro zone, the trade balance reduced its surplus much more than expected, while November’s industrial output rose more than expected. In the US, weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, and both the Empire manufacturing index and the Philadelphia Fed (both for January) rose more than expected, returning to positive territory. In trade matters, the US and Taiwan signed an agreement whereby the former lowers the latter’s tariff to 15% (vs. the previous 20% and in line with Japan and South Korea), with a zero tariff for generic products and pledges to invest at least US$ 500 Bn in the US. In geopolitics, E. Macron announced that he will reinforce the military presence in Greenland and the US has sent military assets to the Middle East, including an aircraft carrier. In US business results, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs beat expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses of -0.3%. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.29% (the S&P 500 ended down -0.29% vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.38%, Japan’s Nikkei -0.29% and South Korea’s Kospi +0.90%).
Today in Germany we will learn December’s final inflation, in Brazil November’s economic activity index and in the US December’s industrial output and January’s NAHB residential construction confidence index. In 4Q’25 business results, M&T Bank and State Street, among others, will release their earnings.

COMPANY NEWS

INDRA. Santa Bárbara to appeal two contracts worth more than € 7 Bn. OVERWEIGHT According to the press, Santa Bárbara Sistemas expects to appeal before the Supreme Court the two large artillery contracts the Govt. awarded IDR and Escribano for € 7.24 Bn. These two projects are key pillars in the 31 Special Modernisation Programmes pushed by the Ministry of Defence. Note that Santa Bárbara has already filed an appeal to try to suspend the € 3 Bn both companies had received in loans at 0% interest to prefinance these programmes. Negative news that adds uncertainty on IDR’s final participation in the Special Modernisation Programmes. However, we will have to wait for the final resolution to see the potential impact. Note that IDR, along with Navantia and Airbus, has been one of the main beneficiaries of the increased Defence spending announced last year.