Report
Valens Research

NCI - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 04 11

Navigant Consulting Inc. (NCI:USA) currently trades below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 15.6x Uniform P/E. Even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve from a low of 9% in 2018 to 11% in 2023.

Specifically, markets appear optimistic about the competitive position of the firm's remaining industry segments and the potential to drive top-line growth. However, they may be skeptical of the benefits of a simplified portfolio and increased revenue visibility outweighing the drawbacks of their Thoreau divestiture and pessimistic about the associated loss of the high-margin Disputes, Forensics & Legal Technology segment.
Underlying
Navigant Consulting Inc.

Navigant Consulting is a global professional services firm. The company's segments include: Healthcare, which provides consulting services and business process management services; Energy, which provides solutions that help clients transform their businesses in changing energy environment, manage complexity, accelerate operational performance, meet compliance requirements and transform their organizations and systems; and Financial Services Advisory and Compliance, which provides strategic, operational, risk management, investigative and compliance advisory services to clients primarily in the financial services industry, including financial and insurance institutions.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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