Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 45.96 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps

Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent S&P 500 (SPX) breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of last week's U.S. Macro Vision report (10/15/24). Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher. We would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5655-5670; buys in this area would be ideal, and we believe a pullback to this area is likely. Once past the election, we believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025. End-of-year seasonal tendencies are extremely bullish during years where the SPX has already rallied significantly (+22.7% YTD).

Concerns Dwindling. One of the primary reasons why we wanted to be cautious in August/September, as SPX tested resistance at 5670-5783, was because of outperformance from defensive Sectors. In September, every single defensive Sector was hitting new multi-month RS highs (Utilities, Staples, Health Care, Real Estate, and Telecomm). Now, only two have continued to outperform -- Utilities (XLU) and Telecomm (IYZ, XTL) -- while the other three are now at three-month RS lows. What this has done is transformed a concern into a tailwind for markets. At this point, the primary remaining concerns include rising bond market volatility (MOVE index) and the fact that Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps remain below $227-229 resistance. Equities have not been upset by a rising U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields, because it has largely been due to strong GDP and employment data. But that could change if rates volatility continues to rise, which would disproportionately hurt small-caps... see page 3.
Healthy Market Dynamics. Aside from the breakout on the SPX and meaningful RS deterioration for several defensive Sectors, additional market dynamics which support our bullish outlook include: (1) High yield spreads are at 3-year narrows; the importance of this cannot be understated. (2) Not one Sector is bearish from a price perspective. (3) Several indexes/Sectors (and NVDA) display breakouts above multi-month resistances (SPX, QQQ, IJH, VXF, SMH, IGV, XLK, BKX Bank index, ARKW, IPO, XLB, JETS, BITQ, and WGMI, among others). (4) Breadth remains healthy... see charts below and pages 4-5.
Underlyings
AECOM

AECOM designs, builds, finances and operates infrastructure assets for governments, businesses and organizations. The company provides: planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design services to commercial and government clients in transportation, facilities, environmental, energy, water and government markets; construction services, including building construction and energy, infrastructure and industrial construction; as well as program and facilities management and maintenance, training, logistics, consulting, technical assistance, and systems integration and information technology services, for agencies of the United States government and for other national governments.

ARCADIS N.V.

Argan Inc.

Argan is a holding company. The company conducts operations through its subsidiaries: Gemma Power Systems, LLC, which is an engineering, procurement and construction contractor; Atlantic Projects Company Limited, which provides turbine, boiler and rotating equipment installation, commissioning and outage services; The Roberts Company, Inc., which provides on-site services that support maintenance, shutdowns and emergency mobilizations for industrial plants in the southern region of the U.S.; and Southern Maryland Cable, Inc., which conducts business as SMC Infrastructure Solutions, and provides technology wiring and utility construction solutions to customers in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.

BrightView Holdings

BrightView is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of commercial landscaping services. The company operates through two segments: Maintenance Services and Development Services. The company's maintenance services segment delivers a suite of recurring commercial landscaping services ranging from mowing, gardening, mulching and snow removal, to more horticulture services, such as water management, irrigation maintenance, tree care, golf course maintenance and turf maintenance. The company's development services are comprised of design, coordination and installation of landscapes at some of the corporate, athletic and university complexes.

BWX Technologies Inc.

BWX Technologies is a manufacturer of nuclear components, a developer of nuclear technologies and a service provider. The company operates three segments: Nuclear Operations Group, which engineers, designs and manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactors and nuclear fuel for the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program; Nuclear Services Group, which provides services including nuclear materials processing and management and operating services; and Nuclear Power Group, which designs and manufactures commercial nuclear steam generators, heat exchangers, pressure vessels, reactor components and other auxiliary equipment.

Construction Partners

Construction Partners is a holding company. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, the company provides a variety of products and services to infrastructure projects, with a focus on highways, roads, bridges, airports, and commercial and residential sites. The company's primary operations consist of manufacturing and distributing hot mix asphalt (HMA), paving activities, including the construction of roadway base layers and application of asphalt pavement, site development, including the installation of utility and drainage systems, mining aggregates, such as sand and gravel, that are used as raw materials in the production of HMA, and distributing liquid asphalt cement in connection with HMA production.

Dycom Industries Inc.

Dycom Industries is a provider of specialty contracting services. The company supplies telecommunications providers with a portfolio of specialty services, including program management; planning; engineering and design; aerial, underground, and wireless construction; maintenance; and fulfillment services for telecommunications providers. Additionally, the company provides underground facility locating services for various utilities, including telecommunications providers, and other construction and maintenance services for electric and gas utilities. The company supplies the labor, tools, and equipment necessary to provide these services to its customers.

EMCOR GROUP

EMCOR Group is an electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services firm. In addition, the company provides building services and industrial services. The company's services are provided to its customers through its operating subsidiaries and joint venture entities. The company engages in providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in various types of facilities and in providing various services relating to the operation, maintenance and management of facilities. The company also provides its construction services indirectly by acting as a subcontractor to general contractors, systems suppliers, construction managers, developers, property managers and other subcontractors.

Fluor Corporation

Fluor is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, operations, maintenance and asset integrity, as well as project management services. The company serves a set of industries including oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, mining and metals, transportation, power, life sciences and manufacturing. The company is also a service provider to the U.S. federal government and governments abroad; and it performs operations, maintenance and asset integrity activities for industrial clients. The company has four segments: Energy & Chemicals; Mining, Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Diversified Services; and Government.

Granite Construction Incorporated

Granite Construction is a holding company, which delivers infrastructure solutions for public and private clients. The company's segments are: Transportation, which focuses on construction and rehabilitation of roads, pavement preservation, bridges, rail lines, airports and marine ports; Water, which focuses on water-related construction and water management solutions; Specialty, which focuses on construction of various complex projects including infrastructure/site development, mining, public safety, tunnel and power projects; and Materials, which focuses on production of aggregates, asphalt and construction related materials as well as proprietary sanitary and storm water rehabilitation products.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is a provider of dredging services. The company provides dredging services in the East, West, and Gulf Coasts of the U.S. and worldwide. The company operates in one operating segment, which is also the company's sole reportable segment and reporting unit. Dredging generally involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Domestically, the company's work generally is performed in coastal waterways and deep water ports. The U.S. dredging market consists of four primary types of work: capital, coastal protection, maintenance and rivers and lakes.

IES Holdings Inc.

IES Holdings is a holding company. The company has four business segments: Commercial & Industrial, which provides electrical and mechanical design, construction, and maintenance services to the commercial and industrial markets in various regional markets and nationwide in certain areas such as the power infrastructure market; Communications, which provides technology infrastructure services to corporations and independent businesses; Infrastructure Solutions, which provides electro-mechanical solutions for industrial operations; and Residential, which provides electrical installation services for single-family housing and multi-family apartment complexes.

JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.

KBR Inc.

KBR provides services and technologies across the asset and program life-cycle within the government services and hydrocarbons industries. The company has three segments: Government Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions to defense, space, aviation and other programs and missions for military and other government agencies; Technology Solutions, which combines technologies, equipment and catalyst supply, digital solutions and associated knowledge-based services into a global business for refining, petrochemicals, inorganic and specialty chemicals; and Energy Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions across the upstream, midstream and downstream hydrocarbons markets.

Lennox International Inc.

Lennox International provides climate control solutions. The company designs, manufactures and markets products for the heating, ventilation, air conditioning and refrigeration markets. The company's segments are: Residential Heating and Cooling, which manufactures and markets furnaces, air conditioners, heat pumps, packaged heating and cooling systems, equipment and accessories, comfort control products, and replacement parts and supplies; Commercial Heating and Cooling, which manufactures and sells unitary heating and cooling equipment; and Refrigeration, which manufactures and markets equipment for the global commercial refrigeration markets under the Heatcraft Worldwide Refrigeration name.

MasTec Inc.

MasTec is an infrastructure construction company operating mainly throughout North America across a range of industries. The company's segments include: Communications, which performs engineering, construction, maintenance and customer fulfillment activities related to communications infrastructure; Oil and Gas, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance services on oil and natural gas pipelines and processing facilities; Electrical Transmission, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance of electrical transmission lines and substations; and Power Generation and Industrial, which performs installation and construction of power facilities.

PRIME ENERGY P.E. LTD

Quanta Services Inc.

Quanta Services is a provider of contracting services, delivering infrastructure solutions for the electric power, energy and communications industries in the United States, Canada, Australia, Latin America and select other international markets. The company has two segments: Electric Power Infrastructure Services, which provides network solutions to customers in the electric power industry and services that support the development of renewable energy generation; and Pipeline and Industrial Infrastructure Services, which provides infrastructure solutions to customers involved in the development, transportation, distribution, storage and processing of natural gas, oil and other products.

Sterling Construction Company Inc.

Sterling Construction is a construction company that focuses in heavy civil construction and infrastructure rehabilitation as well as residential construction projects. The company operates primarily in Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas and Utah, as well as other states. The company's heavy civil construction projects include highways, roads, bridges, airfields, ports, light rail, water, wastewater and storm drainage systems, foundations for multi-family homes, commercial concrete projects and parking structures. Residential construction projects include concrete foundations for single-family homes.

Trane Technologies plc

Ingersoll-Rand provides products, services and solutions to enhance air in homes and buildings, transport and protect food. Co.'s segments are: Climate. which includes Trane® and American Standard® Heating & Air Conditioning, providing heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, and commercial and residential building services, parts, support and controls, energy services and building automation as well as transport temperature control solutions; and Industrial, which includes compressed air and gas systems and services, power tools, material handling systems, ARO® fluid management equipment, as well as Club Car ® golf, utility and rough terrain vehicles.

Tutor Perini Corporation

Tutor Perini is a construction company. The company operates in three segments: Civil, which focuses on public works construction and the replacement and reconstruction of infrastructure; Building, which provides services to various building markets for private and public works customers, including hospitality and gaming, transportation, health care, commercial offices, sports and entertainment, education, correctional facilities, biotech and pharmaceutical, among others; and Specialty Contractors, which focuses on electrical, mechanical, plumbing, heating, ventilation and air conditioning, fire protection systems and pneumatically placed concrete for civil and building construction projects.

Willdan Group

Willdan Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of technical and consulting services to utilities, private industry, and public agencies of government. The company provides services in two segments: Energy, which services include surveys, program design, master planning, benchmarking analyses, design engineering, construction management, performance contracting, installation, alternative financing, and measurement and verification services; and Engineering and Consulting, which provides civil engineering-related construction management, building and safety, city engineering, city planning, geotechnical, and other engineering consulting services to the company's clients.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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