Vermilion Research - REAL ESTATE SPDR (XLRE) ... Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research Ideas

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Vermilion Research

Dave Nicoski ...

Ross LaDuke

EUR 45.98 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we are upgrading our outlook to bullish. Since late-July, our outlook has been neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX), preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction. The market is breaking to new highs, hence our upgrade. We would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, as long as the SPX holds above 5670.

Downgrading Real Estate, Staples, and Health Care to Market Weight. We are downgrading Real Estate (XLRE), Staples (XLP), and Health Care (XLV) to market weight with RS settling-in to horizontal ranges -- reduce exposure. This RS deterioration for d

21/10/2024 1 EN

Underlyings

REAL ESTATE SPDR

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US81369Y8600 NYSE Arca United States

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Staples

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US81369Y3080 NYSE Arca United States

Select Sector SPDR-Health Care

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US81369Y2090 NYSE Arca United States

SPDR S&P Biotech ETF

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US78464A8707 NYSE Arca United States

Provider

Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

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Analysts

Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Downgrading Health Care to Underweight Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The path of least resistance is higher. We have discussed for the past two+ weeks how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback. We expect to see support on the SPX at 5655-5670, and we will remain bullish as long as 5655 support holds. Downgrading Health Care to Underweight. We are downgrading Health Care to underweight; RS on the cap-weighted XLV is breaking...

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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Real Estate, Staples, and Health Care The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month; using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number. As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives, and this is the ideal t...

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Downgrading Health Care to Underweight Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher. We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670. The prior two election years (2016 and 2020) saw 5% and 10% pullbacks, respectfully, during September/October; this year's 10% pullback came a bit earlier (in July/August), and leads us to believe a...

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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

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