TRADE UPDATE MAR 2025: THE IMPACTS OF TARIFF SHOCK ON VIETNAM’S TRADE OUTLOOK
Trade growth in Q1/2025 is stable but the trade surplus has narrowed significantly.Most export items have increased relatively evenly in Q1. Imports may continue to grow in the short term to have enough inventory to serve the stockpiling of inventories in the US during the 90-day tariff suspension period.
Vietnam's dependence on US-China trade leads to poor adaptation to the trade war in the short term. In Q1/2025, 30% of Vietnam's exports came from the US market and 38% of Vietnam's imports came from China. These are also the two markets that recorded the strongest growth in exports and imports in Q1/2025.
As Vietnam heavily depends on international trade (total import-export turnover/GDP is 165% in 2024), especially its dependence on the US in terms of exports and China in terms of imports, the impacts of tariff shocks on global trade are harmful to Vietnam.
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