Report
Sumeet Singh
EUR 184.78 For Business Accounts Only

Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO - First stab at valuation

Ant Group plans to raise up to USD 30bn via a dual listing on both Hong Kong Exchange and Shanghai STAR board.

Ant Group is not only the largest third-party payment player in China, it is also the no.1 independent player in each of the three non-payment segments by key operating metrics. Given that Ant has superior growth and margin vs global fintech peer, we would put it at a premium to global fintech players.

We have provided our thoughts on Ant Group from as early as 2018. We have since looked at the company’s past performance, individual segments and some of the regulatory issues. In my previous note, I compared the company with some of its peers to get a better grasp of each of the segments.

In this note, I’ll run through my earnings forecasts and talk about valuations.
Our previous coverage on Ant Group
Ant Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand the Fintech Empire, Growth and Risk Factors
Ant Financial (蚂蚁金服) IPO Early Thought: What’s New About the Listing News
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) IPO First-take: No. 1 fintech from all angles
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) IPO: Numbers suggest it’s more tech than financials
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Dual listing makes early index inclusion tricky
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Things to clarify/questions to ask
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Running Neck and Neck with Tencent in Direct Financial Services
AliPay’s Advantage over WeChat Pay in Physical Stores
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Impact assessment of the new rule for financial holding companies
Ant Group (蚂蚁集团) Pre-IPO: Payments and CreditTech peer comparison
Underlyings
Provider
Aequitas Research
Aequitas Research

Aequitas Research is a leading ECM research firm with a focus on IPOs and placements/follow-on offerings across the Asia Pacific with deal size of over USD100m. 

Since 2015, we have covered 400+ IPOs and 450+ placements with a hit rate of 73% and 65%, respectively. We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic analysis.
 
Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis. We also provide a more quant driven analysis on placement/follow-on offerings.
 
Markets that we cover include:
Hong Kong,
China ADRs,
India,
Japan,
Australia, and
ASEAN.

Analysts
Sumeet Singh

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