Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 12 - Stocks will find it hard to stay up with weakening data and negative US Q1 EPS estimates. Negative UK data won’t help.US GDP estimates for 2019 are too high.

Macro: Global: More weak UK data, falling Q1 US fwd EPS estimates, more weak data out of AU & NZ. The theme of slowing global growth continues.

Summary: Markets opened strongly last night with EU & US indices up, however gains faded as the session wore on. Small caps outperformed tech and the S&P in the US, while UK gains faded due to weaker/falling UK GDP, IP and Manuf production data. The USD was stronger by default, which weighed on precious and base metals. US yields edged higher. Trade tariff optimism has been regenerated as US-China talks resume.

New trades: Sold USD Index at 96.40 stopped at 97 (-0.7%).
FX: Short AUD .7170 risk .72 target sub .70. Sold USD Index at 96.40 risk 97 target 94.
BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 54bps, target 140. Long NZ 10s sold NZ 2s at 104bps risk 130bps target 50bps. Sold Portugal 10yr bought German Bund at 158bps, risk 110bps target 350bps. Sold HYG at 84.81 risk 85.25 target 79.
EQUITIES: Long ASX All Ordinaries Top 100, Short ASX Small Ordinaries at 0.81x ratio. Sold Transports 10198 risk 10500 target 8500. Bought March VIX 17.42%. Sold ASX200 at 6060 risk 6110 target 5600.
COMMODITIES. Long Silver short Gold at 83.9x risk 87 target 65. Sold Copper at 2.83 risk 2.90 target 2.50. Bought Gold at 1314 risk 1304 target 1350. Bought Silver at 15.82 risk 15.64 target 17.