Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 11 - US growth and lead indicators softening. Key for stocks & EPS is by how much. Stocks & HY are trading as if recession is 6mths away. Investors/HFs record long growth, short safe havens.

Macro: US: Both the pace of growth, and leading measures, are decelerating in the US. The key for stocks and EPS will be how much further from here.

Positioning: Investors and HF’s are still positioned heavily long growth assets as if the US cycle will not end until Q1 2020. However they’ve hedged by rotating out of small cap & tech. However, positioning is at record low safe haven levels, so the unwind will be brutal when it comes.

Summary: US markets again looked gone for all money at -2% losses mid-session before closing slightly positive, a solid recover no doubt, but with no apparent driver for the recovery. Yields paused instead of declining, the USD rose partly due to new Brexit fears sinking the Pound, while commodities softened as the USD rose. So far we are none the wiser as to whether stocks extend losses, keep the range, or rebound.

New trades: Short EURSTG at .9010 close at .9035 (-0.3%). Long AUDNZD 1.0750 stopped at 1.0480 (-1,.6%). Short
FX: $JPY at 112.80 risk 114.20 tgt 110. Long EUR$ at 1.1360 risk 1.1260 target 1.18. Sold NZDJPY 78.30 risk 78.90 target 75. Buy JPYKRW at 9.85 risk 9.76 target 10.30
BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 54bps, target 140. Long NZ 10s short NZ 2s at 104bps risk 130bps target 50bps. Sold Portugal 10yr bought German Bund at 158bps, risk 110bps target 350bps.
EQUITIES: Long ASX All Ordinaries Top 100, Short ASX Small Ordinaries at 0.81x ratio. Stay short 1 unit Homebuilders at 751. Short US Banks Index at 93.25 risk 100 target 80. Stay short Dow Transports at 10375 risk 10800 target 9000.
COMMODITIES. Long Silver short Gold at 83.9x risk 87 target 65. Long Silver 14.08 risk 13.85 target 14.80+.