ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL - Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 6 - Will the RBAâ€™s next rates move be a hike or a cut? We favour a cut. GDP growth will slow to 2%, wages, consumption and savings are sliding, as is residential mining investment.

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ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL

Craig Ferguson

Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 6 - Will the RBAâ€™s next rates move be a hike or a cut? We favour a cut. GDP growth will slow to 2%, wages, consumption and savings are sliding, as is residential & mining investment.

Macro: UK Slowdown: More worrying evidence of a slowing global economy with UK Services PMIâ€™s slipping towards the crucial 50 expansion/contraction line. Brexit is no doubt playing a role, but the trend is consistent with EU, Asia & AU/NZ data slowing.

Macro: AU: Will the RBA hike or cut rates next? In AU, the GDP ST cycle has peaked, along with the domestic economy, and yesterdayâ€™s numbers look to be the start of a run of low GDP outcomes. This raises the question can the RBA hike rates from here? Our sense is no, with consumption and investment the two key reasons why not. If a global crisis unfolds in 2019, then the next RBA move will be a cut not a hike.

Summary: US markets were closed last night, and that may mean at least a days welcome relief from recent market volatility. The only US centric news of note were comments out of China that they are set to increase purchases of Ag products, which prompted congratulatory Trump tweets, and may see stock futures open a tad higher. UK Services PMIâ€™s collapsed, and AU GDP yesterday was weak.

New trades: None.
FX: Short EURSTG at .9010 risk .9150 target .84. Long AUDNZD 1.0750 tgt 1.12 risk 1.0480. Short $JPY at 112.80 risk 114.20 tgt 110. Long EUR$ at 1.1360 risk 1.1260 target 1.18. Sold NZDJPY 78.30 risk 78.90 target 75. Buy JPYKRW at 9.85 risk 9.76 target 10.30
BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 54bps, target 140. Long NZ 10s short NZ 2s at 104bps risk 130bps target 50bps. Sold Portugal 10yr bought German Bund at 158bps, risk 110bps target 350bps.
EQUITIES: Long ASX All Ordinaries Top 100, Short ASX Small Ordinaries at 0.81x ratio. Stay short 2 units Homebuilders at 751 risk 780 target 650. Sell Dow Transports at 10375 risk 10800 target 9000.
COMMODITIES. Long Silver short Gold at 83.9x risk 87 target 65. Long Silver 14.08 risk 13.85 target 14.80+.

05/12/2018 6 EN

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ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL

Antipodean provides top down global macro style research covering all major geographies, asset classes and economies. Our research is a combination of fundamental (fiscal, monetary, political, economic) and technical (charts, positioning) and we provide portfolio's of trades tracked quarterly across all assets.

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Analysts

Craig Ferguson

Other Reports from ANTIPODEAN CAPITAL

Craig Ferguson

Craig Ferguson

Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 19 - The next phase of the growth slowing phase is which policy makers, when and how, respond. The ECB look like doing so. Expect more from the Chinese too.

Today’s themes: Today we build on yesterday’s 4 daily themes – slowing data & EPS cycles, policy maker responses, whether US data closes the gap to EU and US curve flattening via the Fed collar – with three related themes. The first is that we are again seeing the first signs of policy responses from the ECB to weaker EU data (which is about time, because many EU nations are in or near recession!). The implications of these responses are key, because they will dictate EU asset trajectories, and we have argued that in a slowing growth world we should “follow the first easers”. The second new wi...

February 19, 2019 February 19, 2019 1 EN

Craig Ferguson

Craig Ferguson

Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 14 - Weak EU IP and a better than expected US CPI see the USD reverse yesterdays gains and drive to a new high. US still looks better than EU, at least for now.

Summary: Markets passed time near this weeks highs last night, with slightly stronger US CPI data and some less than dovish commentary from the Fedâ€™s Harker suggesting that 1 or 2 further hikes might be in order. The Fedâ€™s Bostic argued that the Fed could take their time. That plus very weak EU IP data (-4.7%) saw the USD rise and the EUR fall. This sank commodities and precious metals prices. New trades: Long USD Index at 96.70 stopped again at 97.20 (-0.5%). FX: Short AUD .7170 risk .72 target sub .70. Sold USD Index at 96.40 risk 97 target 94. BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 5...

February 13, 2019 February 13, 2019 5 EN

Craig Ferguson

Craig Ferguson

Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 13 - Resell USD on key reversal day down, despite looking better than the EU. NFIB data was weak, but JOLTS strong. Equities up on trade deadline extension.

Macro: US: JOLTS data showed a positive labour market environment in the US last night, but the leading NFIB survey of small business outlined potential weakness down the pipe. This divergence between lagging labour and leading data continues to play out, both preventing real strength and weakness at the same time in US data outcomes. Summary: Markets reacted well to news that tariff imposition dates may be pushed back to allow more time for the US & China to reach a deal. JOLTS data in the US hit a new record high, but the NFIB small business optimism index fell sharply, perhaps in response ...

February 12, 2019 February 12, 2019 5 EN

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Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Dec 6 - Will the RBAâ€™s next rates move be a hike or a cut? We favour a cut. GDP growth will slow to 2%, wages, consumption and savings are sliding, as is residential & mining investment.

Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 19 - The next phase of the growth slowing phase is which policy makers, when and how, respond. The ECB look like doing so. Expect more from the Chinese too.

Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 14 - Weak EU IP and a better than expected US CPI see the USD reverse yesterdays gains and drive to a new high. US still looks better than EU, at least for now.

Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 13 - Resell USD on key reversal day down, despite looking better than the EU. NFIB data was weak, but JOLTS strong. Equities up on trade deadline extension.

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