Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 1 - What a difference a day makes. Yesterday’s Fed growth optimism offset by a reminder that the data cycle is still decelerating globally. Italy in recession, Chicago Fed PMI -7pts, JP IP -2%.

Macro: Global data: Despite a positive approach from the US Fed on rates and their balance sheet which has helped stocks gain a further 1% today into the close, last night reminded markets why they were right to worry in the first place. Perhaps most noticeable last night though were the substantial falls in bond yields in response to globally weak data, but particularly in the US where markets repriced from 6bps of cuts by Jan 2020 to 13bps this morning. That is a big shift in perceptions on US Fed rate expectations, but seems an outlier given investor and Fed confidence on the US economy and US Fwd EPS.

Summary: Stocks in the US advanced amid a post FOMC glow, but elsewhere global equities stumbled, weighed down by a weaker USD and their own higher FX rates, plus a weakening in global data cycles yet again. Chinese Manuf PMI printed unchanged at 49.5, Jap IP hit -2%, Italy fell into a mild technical recession (-0.1% GDP after -0.2% Q3), German retail sales hit -2%, and the US Chicago Fed PMI fell 7pts. Bond yields fell hard.

New trades: None.
FX: Short $JPY at 107.50 risk 110. Long EUR$ at 1.1360 risk 1.1260 target 1.18. Long JPYKRW at 9.85 risk 9.76 target 10.30. Bought AUD (risking .72) or NZD (risking .68) sell USD.
BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 54bps, target 140. Long NZ 10s short NZ 2s at 104bps risk 130bps target 50bps. Sold Portugal 10yr bought German Bund at 158bps, risk 110bps target 350bps.
EQUITIES: Long ASX All Ordinaries Top 100, Short ASX Small Ordinaries at 0.81x ratio. Bought S&P at 2682 risk 2660 target 2740.
COMMODITIES. Long Silver short Gold at 83.9x risk 87 target 65. Long Silver 14.08 risk 13.85 target 17. Bought Gold at 1243 risk 1230 target 1380.