Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 5 - US stocks pushing higher as US outperforms EU, Asia. Failure at resistance is likely though as stocks underprice global risks now. RBA should shift dovish in response to softer data. ST sell t

Macro: RBA today: The last 3 weeks of AU macro data has been roundly weak. Business confidence is collapsing, building investment and prices are off substantially and job ads growth has now slowed and is falling. This says growth and inflation will slow, consumption will soften even further, and soon employment growth will slow to a crawl. This is not the environment in which the RBA has a hiking bias. Expect them (today) to move back to neutral and remove commentary that the next move in rates will be up in favour of risks being roughly balanced or tilted to the downside.

Summary: Markets pushed higher again last night, despite a weaker EU sentiment survey (-3 v -1 last) and falls in US IP for Nov and core capex orders, even if that data is somewhat dated. Stocks rose 1% or so, while US 10yr yields jumped a further 3-4bps. The 2-10 curve steepened a few bps to 20bps. The USD edged higher and precious metals fell in response, looking like they’ve made a ST peak at last weeks highs.

New trades: Sell AUD at .7225 risk .7260 target .71.
FX: Sell AUD at .7225 risk .7260 target .71.
BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 54bps, target 140. Long NZ 10s sold NZ 2s at 104bps risk 130bps target 50bps. Sold Portugal 10yr bought German Bund at 158bps, risk 110bps target 350bps.
EQUITIES: Long ASX All Ordinaries Top 100, Short ASX Small Ordinaries at 0.81x ratio. Long S&P at 2682 risk 2660 target 2740.
COMMODITIES. Long Silver short Gold at 83.9x risk 87 target 65