Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Feb 8 - Global growth and inflation concerns are deepening amongst policy makers. Earnings certainty is weakening. Sell ASX200, Dow Transports, HY bonds, Copper, buy VIX.

Today’s themes: Back to global markets and risk appetite today. Stocks, commodities and HY bonds all peaked last night and should have ended the 7 week run higher. Significant retracement risks now are likely. Sell stocks, Copper and HY bonds. Buy the VIX.

Summary: reversed course last night as we expected, with concern around global growth and inflation cycles and US and global earnings weighing. The Bank of India cut rates, the BOE & ECB slashed inflation forecasts by 0.5-0.6%, signalling that the inflation cycle peak has well and truly passed. Japanese leading indicators continue to decline, and Italian retail sales fell. Stocks, yields & commodities will fall further.

New trades:. Sell Transports 10198 risk 10500 target 8500. Buy March VIX 17.42%. Sell ASX200 at 6060 risk 6110 target 5600. Sell HYG at 84.81 risk 85.25 target 79. Sell Copper at 2.83 risk 2.90 target 2.50.
FX: Short AUD .7170 risk .72 target sub .70.
BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 54bps, target 140. Long NZ 10s sold NZ 2s at 104bps risk 130bps target 50bps. Sold Portugal 10yr bought German Bund at 158bps, risk 110bps target 350bps.
EQUITIES: Long ASX All Ordinaries Top 100, Short ASX Small Ordinaries at 0.81x ratio.
COMMODITIES. Long Silver short Gold at 83.9x risk 87 target 65.