Antipodean Capital Macro Strategy Daily Jan 22 - While stocks have rebounded solidly, technical resistance is at 200 day averages and Nov highs. Our sense is stocks will pullback this week or next, once they’ve tried and failed at there.

Technicals: US stocks: A very solid rebound from the lows of now 12-14% has US stocks trying to retest their 50/200 day averages. Only a rise back through 200 day averages and new highs above those seen on the Nov rally will see stocks regain the technical initiative. For now they remain with hurdles ahead. This outlook is shared by most major markets we follow.

Summary: Stock & bond markets in the US were closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, but futures are pointing to modest losses when markets re-open, due to steadily softer China GDP, IP, retail and FAI data out yesterday, and an overnight downgrade of world GDP from 3.7% to 3.5% by the IMF. Trade tariff optimism continues, but news that US trade reps briefed Congress about a lack of IP transfer progress crimped that somewhat.

New trades: None.
FX: Short $JPY at 107.50 risk 110. Long EUR$ at 1.1360 risk 1.1260 target 1.18. Short NZDJPY at 72 risk 75. Long JPYKRW at 9.85 risk 9.76 target 10.30
BONDS: Long 2 units ASX Banks 5yr CDS at 54bps, target 140. Long NZ 10s short NZ 2s at 104bps risk 130bps target 50bps. Sold Portugal 10yr bought German Bund at 158bps, risk 110bps target 350bps. Bought US 10’s at 2.91% risk 3.1% target 2.6%. Sold HYG at 83.55 risk 85 target 80.
EQUITIES: Long ASX All Ordinaries Top 100, Short ASX Small Ordinaries at 0.81x ratio. Short US Banks Index at 93.25 risk 100 target 80. Stay short Dow Transports at 10375 risk 10800 target 8000. Bought Feb VIX at 20.2.
COMMODITIES. Long Silver short Gold at 83.9x risk 87 target 65. Long Silver 14.08 risk 13.85 target 14.80+. Bought Gold at 1243 risk 1230 target 1300.