Can TWC turn in Q4? Yes but maybe not enough
Charter Q3 subscriber net additions missed expectations even though CFO Chris Winfrey had said that 2H results would improve. In spite of the shortfall, Winfrey remained resolute, implying Q4 will be a lot better. In this note, we have attempted to segment legacy TWC's sub base, the root of Charter's sub shortfalls, to determine the likelihood that TWC Q4 results do indeed show improvements. We have estimated the percentage still on at risk packages, the percentage moved across to new pricing and packaging as well as trends within each cohort. Overall, our work shows TWC video sub losses will improve from -86k in Q3 to -62k in Q4. Better but maybe not enough.Charter Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a cable operator and a broadband communications company providing video, Internet and voice services. The company also provides its mobile service to residential customers. In addition, the company sells video and online advertising inventory to local, regional and national advertising customers and communications and managed solutions to enterprise customers. The company also owns and operates regional sports networks and local sports, news and community channels. The company owns and operates a two-way telecommunications network which passes various households and small and medium businesses across United States.
Formed in 2003 by an established team from Cazenove, one of the most respected investment banks in the UK, Atlantic Equities conducts and publishes fundamental, bottom up research on mid and large cap US companies.
Atlantic provide order execution through a wide range of DMA products and algorithmic trading suites.
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