Report
Nicholas Cortellucci, CFA

DRX: Q4 Financials Preview

What you need to know:
• ADF Group will be reporting Q4 & FY24 financial results on April 11th before market open.
• For Q4, we are expecting revenue of $77.1M (+50% YoY), gross margin of 22% (vs. 18% last year), and adjusted EBITDA of $13.6M (+132% YoY).
• We view the recent pullback in DRX stock as a major buying opportunity ahead of another record year ahead while valuation remains cheap at 4.5x FY25E EBITDA.

ADF Group (DRX:TSX, ADFJF:OTC) announced that it will be reporting Q4 & FY24 financial results for the year ending January 31st on April 11th before market open. We are expecting another excellent quarter from ADF, with 50% YoY topline growth and continued margin expansion compared to last year. A breakdown of our estimates can be found below. Given the recent 13% pullback in DRX stock, we view the current price as a major buying opportunity ahead of another record year in FY25. ADF Group remains one of our highest conviction names in our coverage. We are maintaining our BUY rating and $13.00/share target price on ADF Group.

The conference call will be held at 10AM EST on April 11th which investors can register for using this link or by dialing 1-888-390-0620.

Q4 & FY24 Financials Preview
For Q4, we are expecting:
• Revenue of $77.1M, representing 50% YoY growth
• Gross margin of 22% (compared to 18% in Q4/23)
• Adjusted EBITDA of $13.6M (18% margin vs. 11% last year, 132% YoY growth)
• Net income of $8.6M or $0.26/share (vs. $2.9M or $0.07/share last year)

For FY24, we are expecting:
• Revenue of $319.7M, representing 27% YoY growth
• Gross margin of 21% (compared to 14% in FY23)
• Adjusted EBITDA of $54.1M (17% margin vs. 10% last year, 107% YoY growth)
• Net income of $35.7M or $1.09/share (vs. $14.9M or $0.46/share last year)
Underlying
ADF Group Inc.

ADF Group is engaged in the design and engineering of connections, fabrication and installation of complex steel superstructures, heavy steel built-ups, as well as architectural and miscellaneous metalwork for the five principal segments of the non-residential construction market namely, office towers and high-rises, commercial and recreational buildings, airport facilities, industrial complexes and nuclear facilities, and transport infrastructures.

Provider
Atrium Research Corporation
Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists. 

Analysts
Nicholas Cortellucci, CFA

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