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• APM reported its Q3 production results, delivering 25.6Koz AuEq (+6% QoQ), with San Bartolome outperforming estimates while Golden Queen faced operational challenges.
• With gold and silver prices surging, APM is well-positioned for strong H2 cash flow despite tracking toward the lower end of annual guidance, enabling flexibility for M&A, dividends, or buybacks.
• We are increasing our commodity price assumptions and rolling over our valuation year to 2026, resulting in an increased target price.
• This morning, APM also announced drill results and an update from its 2025 Exploration campaign, read more on page 2.
Yesterday, after market close, Andean Precious Metals (APM:TSX, ANPMF:OTC) announced its Q3/25 operational results that were mixed relative to our expectations, with Golden Queen missing our estimates and San Bartolome beating our estimates. On a QoQ basis, consolidated AuEq production grew 6% to 25.6Koz as management outlined for sequentially improving results. Golden Queen saw some operational issues (see below), and as such, APM is tracking towards the lower end of its annual production guidance with an expected strong Q4.
Nevertheless, the rapidly increasing gold and silver prices will place APM in an excellent cash flow position for H2, being able to allocate capital to M&A, dividends, or buybacks. We are updating our model to assume $3,700/oz gold and $42/oz silver (previously $3,000/oz and $31/oz), conservatively compared to spot. We are also rolling over our valuation year to 2026 to reflect a full year of higher commodity prices. We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing our target price to C$11.00/share (previously C$6.00/share) on APM.
Golden Queen Production Highlights
• Q3 AuEq production came in at 10.1Koz (-28% YoY) compared to our estimate of 15.4Koz, consisting of 9.2Koz Au and 77Koz Ag.
• Q3 AuEq sold of 9.9Koz, consisting of 9.1Koz Au and 77Koz Ag.
• Management attributed the decline to the migration of fine ore particles impacting the permeability of a designated high-grade leach cell scheduled for processing. To resolve this challenge, the cell underwent reconditioning, and the leaching solution was administered at a reduced rate to mitigate further particle migration.
• GQ has returned to operating within expected parameters, with gold production increasing from late September through early October and showing a stabilizing trend.
San Bartolome Production Highlights
• Q3 AuEq production came in at 15.6Koz (+2% YoY) or 1.4Moz AgEq compared to our estimate of 15.0Koz AuEq. This was comprised of 1.2Koz Au and 1.3Moz Ag.
• Q3 AuEq sold was 15.6Koz, including 1.2Koz Au and 1.3Moz Ag.
APM: Q3 Production; Increasing TP on Higher Silver Prices
What you need to know:• APM reported its Q3 production results, delivering 25.6Koz AuEq (+6% QoQ), with San Bartolome outperforming estimates while Golden Queen faced operational challenges.
• With gold and silver prices surging, APM is well-positioned for strong H2 cash flow despite tracking toward the lower end of annual guidance, enabling flexibility for M&A, dividends, or buybacks.
• We are increasing our commodity price assumptions and rolling over our valuation year to 2026, resulting in an increased target price.
• This morning, APM also announced drill results and an update from its 2025 Exploration campaign, read more on page 2.
Yesterday, after market close, Andean Precious Metals (APM:TSX, ANPMF:OTC) announced its Q3/25 operational results that were mixed relative to our expectations, with Golden Queen missing our estimates and San Bartolome beating our estimates. On a QoQ basis, consolidated AuEq production grew 6% to 25.6Koz as management outlined for sequentially improving results. Golden Queen saw some operational issues (see below), and as such, APM is tracking towards the lower end of its annual production guidance with an expected strong Q4.
Nevertheless, the rapidly increasing gold and silver prices will place APM in an excellent cash flow position for H2, being able to allocate capital to M&A, dividends, or buybacks. We are updating our model to assume $3,700/oz gold and $42/oz silver (previously $3,000/oz and $31/oz), conservatively compared to spot. We are also rolling over our valuation year to 2026 to reflect a full year of higher commodity prices. We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing our target price to C$11.00/share (previously C$6.00/share) on APM.
Golden Queen Production Highlights
• Q3 AuEq production came in at 10.1Koz (-28% YoY) compared to our estimate of 15.4Koz, consisting of 9.2Koz Au and 77Koz Ag.
• Q3 AuEq sold of 9.9Koz, consisting of 9.1Koz Au and 77Koz Ag.
• Management attributed the decline to the migration of fine ore particles impacting the permeability of a designated high-grade leach cell scheduled for processing. To resolve this challenge, the cell underwent reconditioning, and the leaching solution was administered at a reduced rate to mitigate further particle migration.
• GQ has returned to operating within expected parameters, with gold production increasing from late September through early October and showing a stabilizing trend.
San Bartolome Production Highlights
• Q3 AuEq production came in at 15.6Koz (+2% YoY) or 1.4Moz AgEq compared to our estimate of 15.0Koz AuEq. This was comprised of 1.2Koz Au and 1.3Moz Ag.
• Q3 AuEq sold was 15.6Koz, including 1.2Koz Au and 1.3Moz Ag.
Underlying
ANDEAN PRECIOUS METALS CORP
Provider
Atrium Research Corporation
Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists.
Ben Pirie
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